Still no big crash in prices. When will it happen?
So far, despite the panic around crashing oil prices, the only crash in the real estate market is with new listings. The new listings are down 23% compared to the 3-year average, and down 28% compared to last year.
The drop in sales at 16% is to be expected when there is uncertainty around the economy, and when there are so few homes coming on the market.
Over three years ago, I commenced a lawsuit against an anonymous blogger. He went by the name of Squidly77 and was posting statements which were defamatory and damaging to me personally and to my real estate business. I tracked him down(a fascinating story in itself), and when I unmasked him, it turns out his real name is Gary Michael Bench. This person was completely unknown to me previous to this lawsuit.
Holding Gary Bench (aka Squidly77) accountable for his lies and receiving a public apology was a matter of principle for me.
Many of the things he was saying were outright lies. It finally went to trial, and when it was his turn to take the stand, he chose to settle the matter “out-of-court.” He issued an apology and signed an Agreement. At the request of Gary Bench, I agreed not to disclose the terms of the Agreement and settlement. My original statement of claim was seeking approximately half-a-million dollars in damages from Gary Bench.
Gary Bench’s apology (Gary Bench was known to the blogosphere as Squidly):
Some welcome changes are occurring in the Calgary housing market. It’s been a long time since buyers had the upper hand, and it’s also been a long time since buyers had a good selection of homes from which to choose.
Bidding wars are almost a thing of the past with only 9% of homes selling for list price or higher in January. It takes about six months for the realities of the market to hit home with most sellers and that’s why you haven’t yet seen a corresponding drop in prices yet.
If you’re buying or selling and want to be represented by someone who will give you the straight talk, give me a call or send an email.
“Two consecutive years of relatively strong employment and population growth, combined with rising wages and low lending rates, have supported demand growth in our housing sector,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.
“All citywide resale segments have recorded a moderate easing of supply constraints, which should help stabilize prices as we approach the end of the calendar year,” said Lurie. “Nonetheless, consumers should be aware that market conditions can vary significantly depending on the location and property type.”
In Oct, 16% of homes sold for list price or higher.
More home owners have been motivated to list their homes and reap the rewards of the recent price increase. As a result, new listings are up slightly for the sixth consecutive month.
For September, 17% of sales were for list price or higher. If you bought an average house 12 months ago, it has increased in value by $38,750.
Calgary continues to experience a shortage of inventory with 17% fewer listings than normal for this time of year. There is only a 60-day supply of single family homes on the market. In the lower price ranges, it’s even more severe. For homes priced under $500,000, there is only a 42-day supply.
Despite the shortage of listings, it was the third-best August ever for SFH sales(second-best for overall sales due to strong condo sales).
If you had any doubts about the lack of inventory, bidding wars are still going strong with 18% of sales for list price or higher.
If you bought an average home in Calgary in Aug 2013, the price has increased $29,100 in the past year.
As always in the summer, the price dropped slightly in July. Sales activity is still strong, and more homes are being listed compared to historical averages. Inventory is still low. 19% of homes sold for list price or higher.
If you bought an average home in Calgary in July 2013, the price has increased $29,000 in the past year.
Slightly better conditions for buyers in June
- More homes are being listed
- Bidding wars have eased, but are still commonplace.
- 26% of homes sold for list price or higher in June.
- The average amount paid over list price was $6,417.
- The median price did not increase
- Average DOM(days-on-market) increased by 2 days
- Inventory is almost up to last year’s level
- The trend is your friend: The sales-to-new-listings trend is decreasing. Last year it was increasing.
If you bought an average home in Calgary in June 2013, the price has increased $40,000 in the past year.
The iconic Three Sisters near Canmore, AB
An article in the Invermere, BC newspaper touches on the subject of real estate values in resort communities such as Canmore and Invermere. The reporter sought input from me and the reknowned expert Garth Turner of GreaterFool.ca fame. Columbia Valley Pioneer “Real estate market in valley may not be stable expert warns.”
The market in Canmore has turned around remarkably in the past six months. Inventory is low, attractive homes are selling quickly, and Calgarians are buying them up. Prices are on the increase.