Category Archives: Fearmongers

The Economist: “Canadian housing bubble set to burst”

…and here’s a comment from a reader:

‘The problem with all this talk of a “bubble bursting” in the Canadian real estate market is that the Economist have been saying this for many years now. How many years will they keep this up until it actually happens?..’

Read more Canadian housing bubble set to burst

RBC has a completely different take on the situation:

Calgary-area buyers continue to benefit from a strong provincial economy,  accelerating population growth and attractive affordability,” said Craig Wright,  senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC. “RBC (affordability) measures  for Calgary compare favourably against both historical norms and the national  average, keeping it one of the more affordable housing markets in Canada.”

Read more:  Calgary more affordable

“…the beginning of the end in Cowtown.”

Overheard on greaterfool.ca on April 1:  “It is not a bed of roses in Cowtown just wait and see over the next 2 mths.”

crocus2The 6% drop in sales in March is intoxicating to the doomers who can’t contain their excitement at seeing Calgary finally meeting the same fate as Toronto and Vancouver.  Even this insignificant blip created hysteria among the bubble bloggers, who are conveniently blinded to the realities of accurate data.

From a salivating Garth Turner this prediction: “… the beginning of the end in Cowtown.”

It’s been annoying and irritating to Turner to see the stability of the Calgary market, given his distaste of Alberta. In his frenzy to see Calgary crash, he’s conveniently forgetting that he once said, “one month means nothing.”

As for his credibility, Garth also predicted in 2008 Real estate prices in Calgary, Edmonton, Fort Mac at 50% of 2006 levels. ” That would put our average price at $200,000. Today it’s over $500,000.

Most fail to mention that new listings have been down, year-to-year, for 10 consecutive months, or that homes were at record high prices in March. How do you buy a house when there’s nothing coming on the market that appeals to you, or is in your price range?

April will be the first month where we see an increase in new listings,  Y to Y,  since May 2012. More selection will hopefully result in a moderation of the prices, also resulting in increasing sales.

To April 6, new listings are up 13% compared to the 3-year average, and up  5% compared to last year.

Spring will bring more listings, lower prices, more sales. It may not be a bed of roses, but crocuses are beautiful, too.

Calgary housing prices and sales on the rise in September

Only three days ago, we read in the Calgary Herald, Calgary housing prices and sales on the decline in September. This headline made front page news on the doomer blogs.

The bubble bloggers took this as a sign that Calgary was joining Toronto and Vancouver on the road to real estate Armageddon. What a difference 3 days can make. I can guarantee that you won’t be seeing any links posted to my headline on the fearmonger’s blogs. They’re not interested in enlightenment or accurate statistics. They prefer to reinforce their agenda with selective data which reinforces their group-think.

What should be of greatest concern is that the housing market in Calgary has a shortage of listings. Inventory is down 23% compared to last year. Can you imagine how much higher the sales increase would be if there was a better selection of homes for buyers?

Sucking and blowing

Have you noticed something missing from the bubble blogs over the past few days? Conspicuous by its absence?

When sales are robust and prices are climbing, it’s a daily occurrence to hear that the real estate board’s stats are unreliable. An untrustworthy source of information. You know, cooking the books.

Now that sales and prices are declining( a normal occurrence in summer), we never hear mention of it. Suddenly, the real estate board’s numbers are infallible. Impeccable, trustworthy, and incapable of error.

Sucking and blowing, both at the same time.

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It’s football season – again

Three times the mortgage rules have been tightened with little change in sales or prices in the Calgary market. Three times the blog dawgs were in a feeding frenzy for a few days. Three times they lined up to make the kick. Three times Lucy pulled the ball away.

For a fourth time, they’ve all lined up. What will be the result this time?

Go Stampeders!!(except when you play the ‘Riders :) )

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Examples of the trustworthy stats

A zealot from TheGreaterFool.ca, ironically with the name Questioning Calgary Stats left an anecdotal comment today: “Some comments on this blog provide examples of people who bought in Calgary in 2008, 2009, etc. and can only sell for a loss today.”

Let’s look at the facts. Over the past three days, 25 homes have sold which were puchased originally in 2008 – 2009. A total of 16 sold for more than the purchase price, or 64%. Not surprisingly, it appears that only the losers go to TheGreaterFool.ca.

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Bidding wars update

Over the past three days, 11% of homes sold for list price or higher. A tear-down in Rideau Park sold in one day for $30,100 over list. Selling price was $880,000.

In 282 years, Calgary home price will be $276,776

The Plunge-O-meter guy comes up with some totally bizarre predictions. He won’t be around to be accountable, but he predicts in the year 2294(yes, that’s 282 years from now), the average price in Calgary will be $276,776. It will drop an average of $66/mo for 3383 months. http://www.chpc.biz/plunge-o-meter.html

By comparison, he predicts the demise in Edmonton will be quick. In a short 23 years, Edmonton’s average price will be $216,187.