Category Archives: Greater Fool

Garth Turner misleads his readers about Calgary

Posted on April 20, 2013 | 19 Comments

Do not readUpdate Apr 23: A link to this article has been posted on Turner’s blog. Welcome to everyone who has clicked over. Here is  another article with great insight into Turner’s character that you’ll be happy to read: I like Garth (Andrew, thanks for posting the link on Garth’s blog)

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Turner said on his GreaterFool.ca blog: It is different in Calgary. It’s worse. Year/year prices are up a startling 9%, but sales have just turned negative compared to last Spring. SFH sales are down 6%, and listings have crashed 22%…The nation’s most American city risks getting a wee taste of Vegas.

For someone who prides himself on accurate and up-to-date data, this is quite an astonishing deception which he’s trying to pull. How about using data from April? You know, current, updated, relevant numbers?  We know that Gartho has a bookmark to these latest numbers CREB statistics. Sales for the city of Calgary are actually up 14% compared to last year, and new listings have turned the corner this month and are up 13%. It’s no secret that sales have been low because inventory is down 30% compared to historical averages. There just hasn’t been anything to buy.

When you quote statistics that are outdated to prove your point, it makes one wonder if you have an agenda. As it is, GreaterFool.ca seems so intent on having Alberta join the ranks of falling markets in Toronto and Vancouver that he is willing to mislead his readers. Calgary’s stable market has been a source of severe irritation for Turner. Maybe he’s so blinded by his dislike of anything Calgary that he believes his own chicanery and deceptions.

Transparency? Let’s see how forthcoming he is about Calgary’s numbers at the end of the month when sales are up. I predict silence. The greater tragedy, however, is that most of his docile followers don’t even question him.

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Posted in Calgary SFH, Greater Fool, Inaccuracies, Statistics

As predicted

Posted on April 11, 2013 | 4 Comments

Sales have been repressed this year because of low inventory. A few days ago I predicted we’d see more listings and consequently more sales this month. Unlike Garth Turner’s predictions, mine come true.

So far this month new listings are up 18% compared to last year, and sales are up 17%.

I have a lot of respect for someone who admits they screwed up. If you got it wrong, man up and admit it and move on. Denial and obfuscation is some people’s style, however. Yesterday Turner was taking credit for his predictions, but there are a few of his readers who can see through the spin, such as this  one:

#97Vik on 04.11.13 at 12:08 am

Garth,

Price went up 30-40% in the GTA. You call 15% correction? Nice try dude. More like a dent. I feel sorry for the people who listened to you for the past 5 years.

We all know what prices inflated. I’m telling you why this period is over. — Garth

It would be enlightening to know what excuse he would use for his incorrect prediction about Calgary’s prices dropping to 50% of 2006 levels.

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Posted in Calgary SFH, Greater Fool, Market update, Predictions

“…the beginning of the end in Cowtown.”

Posted on April 7, 2013 | 5 Comments

Overheard on greaterfool.ca on April 1:  “It is not a bed of roses in Cowtown just wait and see over the next 2 mths.”

crocus2The 6% drop in sales in March is intoxicating to the doomers who can’t contain their excitement at seeing Calgary finally meeting the same fate as Toronto and Vancouver.  Even this insignificant blip created hysteria among the bubble bloggers, who are conveniently blinded to the realities of accurate data.

From a salivating Garth Turner this prediction: “… the beginning of the end in Cowtown.”

It’s been annoying and irritating to Turner to see the stability of the Calgary market, given his distaste of Alberta. In his frenzy to see Calgary crash, he’s conveniently forgetting that he once said, “one month means nothing.”

As for his credibility, Garth also predicted in 2008 “Real estate prices in Calgary, Edmonton, Fort Mac at 50% of 2006 levels. ” That would put our average price at $200,000. Today it’s over $500,000.

Most fail to mention that new listings have been down, year-to-year, for 10 consecutive months, or that homes were at record high prices in March. How do you buy a house when there’s nothing coming on the market that appeals to you, or is in your price range?

April will be the first month where we see an increase in new listings,  Y to Y,  since May 2012. More selection will hopefully result in a moderation of the prices, also resulting in increasing sales.

To April 6, new listings are up 13% compared to the 3-year average, and up  5% compared to last year.

Spring will bring more listings, lower prices, more sales. It may not be a bed of roses, but crocuses are beautiful, too.

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Posted in Calgary SFH, Fearmongers, Greater Fool, Predictions

“So buy a house. Let us know how it turns out.” — Garth

Posted on March 19, 2013 | 6 Comments

I’m glad you asked. Garth Turner(GreaterFool.ca) has been telling us not to buy a house since 2008. If you live in Calgary and took his advice, here’s how it would have turned out. Furthermore, in the past, you would have had a nice selection of homes to choose from, but with today’s miniscule inventory, you can’t be choosy.

If you bought a house...

Famous last words

Seven months ago, this prediction for Calgary from Garth Turner at GreaterFool.ca: “That the Calgary market will crack is a given…It’s different here, until it isn’t. Which is soon.”    

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/08/24/all-hat/

The average price has risen $45,000 since he made that guess. Any thoughts on what he meant by “soon?”

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Posted in Greater Fool, Predictions

Garth is the best

Posted on September 27, 2012 | 11 Comments

Photo from the GreaterFool.ca

Welcome to everyone who is clicking over from Garth Turner’s blog, the GreaterFool, but a special good morning to Garth himself who will be looking in periodically to get the latest info on the Calgary housing market. Garth had this to say about me… “Some realtors, like this one in Calgary, can’t function without worrying about me, reacting to me or trashing me.”

Well, Gartho, I function just fine without you, and I’ve never trashed you. That’s your preserve. As I’ve said before, if you stop telling lies about me, I’ll stop telling the truth about you.

For this special occasion when I have hundreds of Garth’s readers  looking in, I thought it would be appropriate to honour him with this online poll:  Garth Turner’s crack.

Garth is crazy about my blog

Be sure to check these pages which Garth is anxious for you to see I like Garth and Predictions.

Garth, thanks for following my blog so closely. I see you’ve logged in 14 times in the past few days. When you logged in tonight at 5:56 pm(MDT), you spent 22 minutes of your precious time reading my blog. You certainly know where to find accurate information on the Calgary housing market, but I can’t believe you’re still using that tired and worn out Vista operating system. It looks like you used your HTC Panache Android smartphone, though, when you checked my blog before you went to bed at 9:48 pm(MDT). You’re up to 28 times on that one. If you had stayed up a few minutes longer, you would have seen this post.

Despite his protestations, Garth is an avid reader of my blog. This is how he gets his day started.

With such intense interest in my blog, do you think it’s possible that Garth is considering Moving to Calgary?

Thanks, Garth, for posting the link to my blog. I hope you’ll continue to do it often. The blawg dogs will be better informed because of it, and I know that’s your main goal, to make people aware of the truth. I hope you continue to enjoy reading my blog, and we’re looking forward to seeing you in Calgary and hearing your scary predictions, which never seem to come true. For example, how did these turn out:

  •  Neighbourhood food shortages as just-in-time delivery systems are disrupted
  • Real estate prices in Calgary, Edmonton, Fort Mac at 50% of 2006 levels
  • Scaling back of 2010 Olympics in Vancouver
  • Failure of a major Canadian bank, leading to emergency merger.
  • Banks ordered temporarily shut and restrictions on cash withdrawals.

I won’t go into your Nortel predictions.

If you’re hoping to buy a house here, you’ll need to be quick on the draw. Look at this recent listing:

The above house was listed in the morning and had a conditional sale by sundown

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Posted in Greater Fool, Predictions

Sucking and blowing

Posted on July 12, 2012 | Leave a comment

Have you noticed something missing from the bubble blogs over the past few days? Conspicuous by its absence?

When sales are robust and prices are climbing, it’s a daily occurrence to hear that the real estate board’s stats are unreliable. An untrustworthy source of information. You know, cooking the books.

Now that sales and prices are declining( a normal occurrence in summer), we never hear mention of it. Suddenly, the real estate board’s numbers are infallible. Impeccable, trustworthy, and incapable of error.

Sucking and blowing, both at the same time.

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It’s football season – again

Three times the mortgage rules have been tightened with little change in sales or prices in the Calgary market. Three times the blog dawgs were in a feeding frenzy for a few days. Three times they lined up to make the kick. Three times Lucy pulled the ball away.

For a fourth time, they’ve all lined up. What will be the result this time?

Go Stampeders!!(except when you play the ‘Riders :) )

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Examples of the trustworthy stats

A zealot from TheGreaterFool.ca, ironically with the name Questioning Calgary Stats left an anecdotal comment today: “Some comments on this blog provide examples of people who bought in Calgary in 2008, 2009, etc. and can only sell for a loss today.”

Let’s look at the facts. Over the past three days, 25 homes have sold which were puchased originally in 2008 – 2009. A total of 16 sold for more than the purchase price, or 64%. Not surprisingly, it appears that only the losers go to TheGreaterFool.ca.

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Bidding wars update

Over the past three days, 11% of homes sold for list price or higher. A tear-down in Rideau Park sold in one day for $30,100 over list. Selling price was $880,000.

→ Leave a comment

Posted in Fearmongers, Greater Fool, Mortgages, Statistics

Note to Garth Turner – I actually like you

Posted on July 8, 2012 | 10 Comments

Welcome to everyone who has clicked over from TheGreaterFool.ca. Garth Turner, the man of the glib tongue and bawdy humour, has a posting today, implying that I hate him.  :(   I’ll take this unexpected opportunity to give you some insight into Garth Turner’s character, and explain why I think he’s a likable fellow.

You are unethical. -Garth

Garth Turner sounds very indignant and full of righteous anger. He said the above to a commenter on his GreaterFool.ca blog(comment #46 Market Bull on 06.17.12 at 7:54 pm).

Let me relate a true story of my dealings with Garth Turner, and you can decide for yourself if he has a right to call anyone unethical.

One of Garth’s favourite sayings is “grow some skin”

Three times I have politely asked Garth to remove defamatory comments from his blog that referred to me.  Being a busy man with lots on his plate, I assumed that in a moment of absent-mindedness he let a comment slip by, and would be willing to delete it. The third time it happened, Garth sent me this email:

Will you sue me if I don’t remove it? I think you need to grow a little more skin, Bob.

That’s pretty rich from a guy who sent me this email when he wanted a comment removed from my blog(the one and only time):

Garth Turner said: The following comment was published on your blog. It is false, fabricated and deliberately intended to discredit me. By publishing this comment about my personal actions you are endorsing and validating it. This will serve as notice of my intent to pursue action against you if it is not removed by midnight EDT, April 11. Furthermore you will apologize on your blog for having posted any and all comments which defame me. Failure to do so will result in remedial action being taken. Sincerely, Garth Turner (416)XXXXXXXX

I also asked Garth to give me some reassurance that he would be more diligent in moderating the defamatory comments, seeing as how there seems to be a consistent number of comments slipping by his delete button. He ignored my request.

One of my recent posts, Mid-year update elicited a warning from Garth, coming only a few days after suggesting I needed to grow some skin.  It was very cryptic, something about “governing myself accordingly,” and I asked for clarification but received no reply. I can only assume that he was gnashing his teeth over a photo which I re-posted from his blog and my suggestion that his predictions could have been made by a monkey.

Photo from the GreaterFool.ca

Rather than argue against my ideas or predictions, Garth Turner has attacked me personally. Many times in the past, he has taken my statements out of context in order to whip his followers into a frenzy, even going so far as to allow(and presumably endorsing and validating) comments that encourage his blog dawgs to report me to CREB. For what, I don’t know. Transparency? Reporting factual information? Holding him accountable? One of his fawning sycophants actually left a comment saying that he had reported me to CREB. I wish CREB had notified me what the complaint was about.

It’s open season on me and other realtors on his blog with nasty insults and defamatory comments, yet if I dare hold him accountable, he gets his shorts in a knot. If Garth wants me to govern myself according to his standards, I’ll take a pass, as I really don’t want to lower my standards to a level where insults and personal attacks are the order of the day.

 Garth says today on his post: “And some area realtors hate me .”

Garth seems to find it difficult to accept that we’re all subject to scrutiny. Resorting to personal attacks is the last refuge of someone who has no valid argument, and saying to the nutbars and doomers* in his sandbox that I hate him is childish and an example of the thin skin he so deplores in others. Addressing the issues would be the method which is usually employed by grown-ups.

My advice: get over yourself. Learn some humility. It will bring more peace, and less angst, my friend. As for the photos you post, I’ll let this comment from your own blog be the best advice: “You end up losing credibility and looking like a creepy old undersexed man.”  What was that you were saying about moral decay?

For the record, Garth, I like you. You make realtors look like geniuses A pattern of making incorrect predictions.

*Among other names, Garth has called his loyal followers nutbars, doomers, zealots, nihilists, misogynists, wackos and pissed-off renters. These are the people who are attracted by his superior intelligence and exceptional genes.

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Posted in Defamation, Greater Fool