Still no big crash in prices. When will it happen?
So far, despite the panic around crashing oil prices, the only crash in the real estate market is with new listings. The new listings are down 23% compared to the 3-year average, and down 28% compared to last year.
The drop in sales at 16% is to be expected when there is uncertainty around the economy, and when there are so few homes coming on the market.
More detailed statistics can be found at Single Family Stats
Some welcome changes are occurring in the Calgary housing market. It’s been a long time since buyers had the upper hand, and it’s also been a long time since buyers had a good selection of homes from which to choose.
Bidding wars are almost a thing of the past with only 9% of homes selling for list price or higher in January. It takes about six months for the realities of the market to hit home with most sellers and that’s why you haven’t yet seen a corresponding drop in prices yet.
You can see historical and more detailed statistics at bobtruman.com. CREB has changed their reporting criteria, but my stats criteria have remained consistent since I started reporting them 11 years ago.
If you’re buying or selling and want to be represented by someone who will give you the straight talk, give me a call or send an email.
“Two consecutive years of relatively strong employment and population growth, combined with rising wages and low lending rates, have supported demand growth in our housing sector,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.
“All citywide resale segments have recorded a moderate easing of supply constraints, which should help stabilize prices as we approach the end of the calendar year,” said Lurie. “Nonetheless, consumers should be aware that market conditions can vary significantly depending on the location and property type.”
In Oct, 16% of homes sold for list price or higher.
More home owners have been motivated to list their homes and reap the rewards of the recent price increase. As a result, new listings are up slightly for the sixth consecutive month.
For September, 17% of sales were for list price or higher. If you bought an average house 12 months ago, it has increased in value by $38,750.
Calgary continues to experience a shortage of inventory with 17% fewer listings than normal for this time of year. There is only a 60-day supply of single family homes on the market. In the lower price ranges, it’s even more severe. For homes priced under $500,000, there is only a 42-day supply.
Despite the shortage of listings, it was the third-best August ever for SFH sales(second-best for overall sales due to strong condo sales).
If you had any doubts about the lack of inventory, bidding wars are still going strong with 18% of sales for list price or higher.
If you bought an average home in Calgary in Aug 2013, the price has increased $29,100 in the past year.
As always in the summer, the price dropped slightly in July. Sales activity is still strong, and more homes are being listed compared to historical averages. Inventory is still low. 19% of homes sold for list price or higher.
If you bought an average home in Calgary in July 2013, the price has increased $29,000 in the past year.
Slightly better conditions for buyers in June
- More homes are being listed
- Bidding wars have eased, but are still commonplace.
- 26% of homes sold for list price or higher in June.
- The average amount paid over list price was $6,417.
- The median price did not increase
- Average DOM(days-on-market) increased by 2 days
- Inventory is almost up to last year’s level
- The trend is your friend: The sales-to-new-listings trend is decreasing. Last year it was increasing.
If you bought an average home in Calgary in June 2013, the price has increased $40,000 in the past year.
Market update for May 2014
If you bought an average-priced house in May last year, you’ve just made a profit of $37,000. The median price has risen from $453,000 in 2013 to $490,000 today. If you bought at the previous peak in 2007, you’re now up $55,000.
With 31% of homes selling for list price or higher, it’s still a frenzied market for buyers, but a sign of hope: new listings are up by 12%.
For a more detailed summary of the month-end stats , go to my website
A frenzied market continues…
- 33% of sales were for list price or higher.
- The only occurrence which has prevented all-out insanity is the fact that new listings are increasing slightly. In the price range below $500,000 homes are selling faster than they’re being listed. The absorption rate for homes priced between 0 – 500,000 is .8, so that means there is a 24-day supply of listings. In December there was a 36-day supply.
- 66% of the homes listed last month are already sold.
Suggestion for buyers…
If you’re a buyer, and can wait a few months, there’s bound to be more inventory come July and chances are good that prices will moderate accordingly.
Suggestion for sellers…
There’s never been a better time to get top dollar and a quick sale.
Send me an email if you’d like an evaluation or have any questions email@example.com