The direct relationship between new listings and sales continues to be evident. In short, when there’s nothing to buy, sales suffer. Sales are only up 14% whereas earlier in the month when they were up 22%, but that can be attributed to low inventory and a lack of attractive new listings.
Douglas Porter, chief economist with BMO Capital Markets, said evidence continues to mount that the Canadian housing market seems to have pulled off the fabled soft landing.
He said surprises on the sales data in recent months have consistently been on the high side of expectations, not the low side.
“While some are highlighting the fact that prices are now rising at ‘their slowest pace since the 2009 recession’ the plain facts are that: a) they are still rising, and b) faster than inflation, and c) prices are at all-time highs. Some meltdown,” he said
Read more in the Herald: Calgary a bright light among Canadian housing markets.
Inner-city development properties are in demand right now. A tear-down in Capitol Hill which was listed for $475,000 was sold in one day for $535,000. An old bungalow on a 50′ lot in Banff Trail sold in one day for $549,900 which was list price. It was purchased in 2009 for $470,000. These homes are usually bought by builders who construct 2 infills in place of one old house.
Bidding wars update: Over the past two days, 20% of sales were for list price or higher.
A spike in new listings led to a dramatic rise in first-time buyers in April. Bidding wars are at their highest level in years. Over the past 3 days, 24% of homes sold for list price or higher. With new listings up 5%, I would have expected to see a drop in the median price, but the pent-up demand from buyers kept sales and prices up there. When 24% of homes are selling for list price or higher, you can be assured that inventory levels are not making for a healthy market. Let’s hope for a surge in new listings in May. You can see a more comprehensive update on my Monthly stats update.
Inventory remains very low for this time of year.
Despite more new listings, inventory continues to drop because of the increased sales.
The demand for homes in Calgary is resulting in numerous bidding wars. Yesterday, 25% of all sales were for list price or higher. A home in Scenic Acres which was listed for $458,000 had an accepted offer after one day on the market and sold for $468,000. It was purchased in 2001 for $209,000.
A tear-down on a 50′ lot in Montgomery also sold in one day. It was listed for $419,000 and sold for $432,500.
Sellers are finally starting to list their homes, but inventory remains low because the buyers are snapping them up.
Bidding wars update:
Over the past 3 days, 17% of homes sold for list price or higher. A bi-level in Silver Springs was listed for $475,999 and sold in 5 days for $484,000. It was purchased in 2010 for $417,000.
A 2-story in Sundance was listed for $419,900 and had a firm offer in 2 days for $430,000. It was purchased in 2007 for $365,000.
From the Calgary Herald: Calgary home price growth best in Canada
Sales have been repressed this year because of low inventory. A few days ago I predicted we’d see more listings and consequently more sales this month. Unlike Garth Turner’s predictions, mine come true.
So far this month new listings are up 18% compared to last year, and sales are up 17%.
I have a lot of respect for someone who admits they screwed up. If you got it wrong, man up and admit it and move on. Denial and obfuscation is some people’s style, however. Yesterday Turner was taking credit for his predictions, but there are a few of his readers who can see through the spin, such as this one:
#97Vik on 04.11.13 at 12:08 am
Price went up 30-40% in the GTA. You call 15% correction? Nice try dude. More like a dent. I feel sorry for the people who listened to you for the past 5 years.
We all know what prices inflated. I’m telling you why this period is over. — Garth
It would be enlightening to know what excuse he would use for his incorrect prediction about Calgary’s prices dropping to 50% of 2006 levels.
The median price hit an all-time high for Calgary at $450,000 which obliterates the previous high of $439,000 set back in Jun 2007.
There’s an overwhelming demand for homes priced under $500,000 with only a 36-day supply of homes on the market. Last year in this price range, there was a 51-day supply.
Read more here Monthly stats update
Does the phenomenon of recency distort our views? How far back should you examine the numbers when considering housing data? From the Globe and Mail: Housing bears need to relax and take the long view.
The March median price will break all previous records. It’s surprising to see that sales are up considering the inventory shortage.
20% of homes sold in the past 2 days went for list price or higher. A 1931 Mt Pleasant bungalow which was listed for $449,900 sold for $502,100. It had an accepted offer in 1 day.
It’s a hot seller’s market for homes in the 0 – $400,000 price range, with only a 35-day supply of inventory. Also in that price range, 78% of all new listings are selling within 30 days.
For homes above $400,000, there’s a 72-day supply.
Alberta’s population is closing the gap with BC. If both provinces continue to grow at the same rate as last year, Alberta will surpass B.C. and become the third largest province within eight years. Alberta’s population growth is best