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What were they predicting?
Jan 14, 2013 MacLean’s Magazine headline: “Inside the Great Real Estate Crash of 2013. The sudden cooling in Canada’s housing sector seemingly struck without warning.” WTH? Sales up 37%, price up 12%, is not exactly a sudden cooling. Overheated would be more accurate. MacLean’s Crash and Burn
Jan 2013 Ben Rabidoux, analyst, from the MacLean’s story: “The demand for oversized homes is expected to fall.” Calgary has already set a record in 2013 for the most million dollar homes sold in one year. Luxury home market breaks annual sales record
April 2013, Garth Turner of GreaterFool.ca blurted out this forecast: “The beginning of the end in Cowtown.” End of what, inventory? Garth has the audacity to say in this post “realtors lie.” If Garth can misconstrue realtors’ accurate predictions into lies, what does that make Garth? When bulls croak
Two years ago, Garth ejaculated: “That the Calgary market will crack is a given. It’s different here, until it isn’t. Which is soon.” So far, his crack has resulted in the median price being up $40,000. What did he mean by soon?
Dec 20, 2008, Garth said he “expects housing prices will plunge another 30 per cent next year – on top of the 11 per cent drop so far this year.” http://www.ctvnews.ca/garth-turner-says-hard-times-have-just-begun-for-canada-1.353465#ixzz2fpRqGVha
Calgary continues to experience a severe shortage of inventory. There is only a 54-day supply of single family homes on the market. Last year, we had a 90-day supply. Despite the shortage of listings, it was the second-best August ever for sales. More detailed statistics can be seen at Monthly stats updates
Bidding wars are also continuing with 14% of homes selling for list price or higher during the last 3 days of the month.
18% of sales have been for list price or higher in August.
Canada’s house price index reached an all-time high in July according to Teranet, an independent reporting concern. Calgary real estate review – Teranet
With inventory down 35% from the norm, and new listings hard to come by, it’s almost unfathomable that sales are up 39%. Don’t expect too much of a lull in activity which usually happens at this time of year, unless we completely run out of homes to sell.
Sales to first-time buyers were up 39% in July compared to the 3-year average, but I expect this group will be affected most by the CMHC mortage cap, and a drop in first-time buyers is most likely to eventually occur.