A spike in new listings led to a dramatic rise in first-time buyers in April. Bidding wars are at their highest level in years. Over the past 3 days, 24% of homes sold for list price or higher. With new listings up 5%, I would have expected to see a drop in the median price, but the pent-up demand from buyers kept sales and prices up there. When 24% of homes are selling for list price or higher, you can be assured that inventory levels are not making for a healthy market. Let’s hope for a surge in new listings in May. You can see a more comprehensive update on my Monthly stats update.
The median price hit an all-time high for Calgary at $450,000 which obliterates the previous high of $439,000 set back in Jun 2007.
There’s an overwhelming demand for homes priced under $500,000 with only a 36-day supply of homes on the market. Last year in this price range, there was a 51-day supply.
Read more here Monthly stats update
Does the phenomenon of recency distort our views? How far back should you examine the numbers when considering housing data? From the Globe and Mail: Housing bears need to relax and take the long view.
Even with inventory down by 25%, sales were still up by 3.8% in Feb compared to the average of the past 3 years.
- The average price hit an all-time high for Calgary at $518,452 but it’s well-known that I put more credence in the median price, which hit an all-time high for Feb at $437,500. It’s still $1500 less than the record high of $439,000 in Jun 2007.
- First-time buyers were up 6.8% compared to last year.
A seller’s market
- There’s a huge demand for homes priced under $500,000 with an absorption rate of 1.3 which means there’s a 39-day supply of homes on the market. Last year in this price range, there was a 60-day supply.
- For homes priced above 500,000, there’s a 111-day supply.
- Bidding wars are going strong, with 17% of homes selling for list price or higher in the last four days of the month.
Read more here Monthly stats update
From the Calgary Herald: Calgary housing market sets all-time record
The following chart comes from Scotiabank. Read more Scotiabank Globalviews
Calgary and Edmonton were the only two cities to show an increase in sales in Sep 2012
Looking at the September statistics in isolation will not tell you the complete story. It still looks like we’ve got increasing sales along with an inventory shortage, while the median price is up:
The trend is your friend
More importantly, it appears from the table below that we will see decreased sales in October if the trend continues. We’ve had eight consecutive months of sales increases, but I predict that will come to an end next month. What’s the reason for the imminent sales drop? We’ve had sales increases despite extremely low inventory. Is the long-awaited correction finally going to hit Calgary, or is it that buyers have finally run out of homes to purchase?
Canada Day in Canmore, Alberta
The housing market in Calgary continues to defy gravity(and all the predictions that were calling for a crash). The biggest issue we had this spring was a shortage of attractive listings. I predicted back in the winter that we’d eventually see higher prices if the lack of inventory persisted, and that’s exactly what happened. The median price is up 9.2% compared to December.
With so little for buyers to choose from, it’s surprising to see that year-to-date sales are up 19% compared to 2011, and up 12% compared to the past three years. More complete statistics can be seen here Monthly stats update
Bidding wars update
Over the past three days, 12% of homes went for list price or higher. A home in North Glenmore which was listed for $489,500 was sold for $492,500, with an accepted offer coming after 2 days on the market. The home was purchased in 2007 for $450,000.
The April 2012 stats update can be seen here
From the Calgary Herald Calgary housing maket soars in April
The Herald reports sales are up 26%, but that’s compared to 2011. I feel that it gives a more accurate picture to compare to the 3-year average, as below.
March 2012 Stats update can be seen here
Sales, not prices, are the leading indicator of where the market’s going. Sales of single family homes in March were up 23% compared to the 3-year average. Continue reading