Category Archives: Predictions

Some meltdown

Posted on May 15, 2013 | 11 Comments

Douglas Porter, chief economist with BMO Capital Markets, said evidence  continues to mount that the Canadian housing market seems to have pulled off the  fabled soft landing.

He said surprises on the sales data in recent months have consistently been  on the high side of expectations, not the low side.

“While some are highlighting the fact that prices are now rising at ‘their  slowest pace since the 2009 recession’ the plain facts are that: a) they are  still rising, and b) faster than inflation, and c) prices are at all-time highs.  Some meltdown,” he said

Read more in the Herald:  Calgary a bright light among Canadian housing markets.

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Posted in Calgary Herald, Calgary SFH, Correction, Market update, Predictions

As predicted

Posted on April 11, 2013 | 4 Comments

Sales have been repressed this year because of low inventory. A few days ago I predicted we’d see more listings and consequently more sales this month. Unlike Garth Turner’s predictions, mine come true.

So far this month new listings are up 18% compared to last year, and sales are up 17%.

I have a lot of respect for someone who admits they screwed up. If you got it wrong, man up and admit it and move on. Denial and obfuscation is some people’s style, however. Yesterday Turner was taking credit for his predictions, but there are a few of his readers who can see through the spin, such as this  one:

#97Vik on 04.11.13 at 12:08 am

Garth,

Price went up 30-40% in the GTA. You call 15% correction? Nice try dude. More like a dent. I feel sorry for the people who listened to you for the past 5 years.

We all know what prices inflated. I’m telling you why this period is over. — Garth

It would be enlightening to know what excuse he would use for his incorrect prediction about Calgary’s prices dropping to 50% of 2006 levels.

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Posted in Calgary SFH, Greater Fool, Market update, Predictions

“…the beginning of the end in Cowtown.”

Posted on April 7, 2013 | 5 Comments

Overheard on greaterfool.ca on April 1:  “It is not a bed of roses in Cowtown just wait and see over the next 2 mths.”

crocus2The 6% drop in sales in March is intoxicating to the doomers who can’t contain their excitement at seeing Calgary finally meeting the same fate as Toronto and Vancouver.  Even this insignificant blip created hysteria among the bubble bloggers, who are conveniently blinded to the realities of accurate data.

From a salivating Garth Turner this prediction: “… the beginning of the end in Cowtown.”

It’s been annoying and irritating to Turner to see the stability of the Calgary market, given his distaste of Alberta. In his frenzy to see Calgary crash, he’s conveniently forgetting that he once said, “one month means nothing.”

As for his credibility, Garth also predicted in 2008 “Real estate prices in Calgary, Edmonton, Fort Mac at 50% of 2006 levels. ” That would put our average price at $200,000. Today it’s over $500,000.

Most fail to mention that new listings have been down, year-to-year, for 10 consecutive months, or that homes were at record high prices in March. How do you buy a house when there’s nothing coming on the market that appeals to you, or is in your price range?

April will be the first month where we see an increase in new listings,  Y to Y,  since May 2012. More selection will hopefully result in a moderation of the prices, also resulting in increasing sales.

To April 6, new listings are up 13% compared to the 3-year average, and up  5% compared to last year.

Spring will bring more listings, lower prices, more sales. It may not be a bed of roses, but crocuses are beautiful, too.

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Posted in Calgary SFH, Fearmongers, Greater Fool, Predictions

“So buy a house. Let us know how it turns out.” — Garth

Posted on March 19, 2013 | 6 Comments

I’m glad you asked. Garth Turner(GreaterFool.ca) has been telling us not to buy a house since 2008. If you live in Calgary and took his advice, here’s how it would have turned out. Furthermore, in the past, you would have had a nice selection of homes to choose from, but with today’s miniscule inventory, you can’t be choosy.

If you bought a house...

Famous last words

Seven months ago, this prediction for Calgary from Garth Turner at GreaterFool.ca: “That the Calgary market will crack is a given…It’s different here, until it isn’t. Which is soon.”    

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/08/24/all-hat/

The average price has risen $45,000 since he made that guess. Any thoughts on what he meant by “soon?”

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Posted in Greater Fool, Predictions

Alberta is least overvalued

Posted on March 4, 2013 | 3 Comments

Fitch Ratings Agency, in a report prepared to determine potential losses on pools of residential mortgages, says Alberta is sitting pretty compared to most other provinces.

“Actual nominal [price] declines could range from the low single digits for Alberta, up to more than 15 per cent for B.C. and Quebec over the next several years assuming values start falling immediately and taking into account inflation and other market dynamics…

Among the four largest provinces, Alberta is the least overvalued because it already went through a house price correction when crude oil prices fell in 2008, and prices have not returned to their 2007 peak.”

Read more Canadian home prices overinflated by 20%: Fitch

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Posted in Predictions

Garth is the best

Posted on September 27, 2012 | 11 Comments

Photo from the GreaterFool.ca

Welcome to everyone who is clicking over from Garth Turner’s blog, the GreaterFool, but a special good morning to Garth himself who will be looking in periodically to get the latest info on the Calgary housing market. Garth had this to say about me… “Some realtors, like this one in Calgary, can’t function without worrying about me, reacting to me or trashing me.”

Well, Gartho, I function just fine without you, and I’ve never trashed you. That’s your preserve. As I’ve said before, if you stop telling lies about me, I’ll stop telling the truth about you.

For this special occasion when I have hundreds of Garth’s readers  looking in, I thought it would be appropriate to honour him with this online poll:  Garth Turner’s crack.

Garth is crazy about my blog

Be sure to check these pages which Garth is anxious for you to see I like Garth and Predictions.

Garth, thanks for following my blog so closely. I see you’ve logged in 14 times in the past few days. When you logged in tonight at 5:56 pm(MDT), you spent 22 minutes of your precious time reading my blog. You certainly know where to find accurate information on the Calgary housing market, but I can’t believe you’re still using that tired and worn out Vista operating system. It looks like you used your HTC Panache Android smartphone, though, when you checked my blog before you went to bed at 9:48 pm(MDT). You’re up to 28 times on that one. If you had stayed up a few minutes longer, you would have seen this post.

Despite his protestations, Garth is an avid reader of my blog. This is how he gets his day started.

With such intense interest in my blog, do you think it’s possible that Garth is considering Moving to Calgary?

Thanks, Garth, for posting the link to my blog. I hope you’ll continue to do it often. The blawg dogs will be better informed because of it, and I know that’s your main goal, to make people aware of the truth. I hope you continue to enjoy reading my blog, and we’re looking forward to seeing you in Calgary and hearing your scary predictions, which never seem to come true. For example, how did these turn out:

  •  Neighbourhood food shortages as just-in-time delivery systems are disrupted
  • Real estate prices in Calgary, Edmonton, Fort Mac at 50% of 2006 levels
  • Scaling back of 2010 Olympics in Vancouver
  • Failure of a major Canadian bank, leading to emergency merger.
  • Banks ordered temporarily shut and restrictions on cash withdrawals.

I won’t go into your Nortel predictions.

If you’re hoping to buy a house here, you’ll need to be quick on the draw. Look at this recent listing:

The above house was listed in the morning and had a conditional sale by sundown

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Posted in Greater Fool, Predictions

What happened in June?

Posted on June 30, 2012 | Leave a comment

Canada Day in Canmore, Alberta

The housing market in Calgary continues to defy gravity(and all the predictions that were calling for a crash).  The biggest issue we had this spring was a shortage of attractive listings. I predicted back in the winter that we’d eventually see higher prices if the lack of inventory persisted, and that’s exactly what happened. The median price is up 9.2% compared to December.

With so little for buyers to choose from, it’s surprising to see that year-to-date sales are up 19% compared to 2011, and up 12% compared to the past three years. More complete statistics can be seen here Monthly stats update

Bidding wars update

Over the past three days, 12% of homes went for list price or higher. A home in North Glenmore which was listed for $489,500 was sold for $492,500, with an accepted offer coming after 2 days on the market. The home was purchased in 2007 for $450,000.

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Posted in Bidding wars, Calgary SFH, Month-end, Predictions

29,289 new residents in Calgary

Posted on June 29, 2012 | Leave a comment

Calgary’s population increased 2.86% over the past year, higher than the boom year of 2007. Where will they all live?

These statistics go a long way in explaining the torrid pace of home sales this spring. Total residential sales are up 21% this year, with an increase in price of 2.1%. Continue reading →

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Posted in Population, Predictions

Mortgage changes are too late

Posted on June 25, 2012 | Leave a comment

Two Moody’s analysts maintain that Canadians have borrowed too much and consumer debt will be the undoing of some:

‘Last week’s mortgage changes unveiled by regulators and the federal government are positive for Canada’s banks, but “may be too late to avoid a housing correction,” according to analysts at Moody’s Investors Service.’

Read more Mortgage changes may be too late

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Posted in Mortgages, Predictions, Price correction

No increase in interest rates anytime soon

Posted on June 24, 2012 | Leave a comment

This is an opinion piece from Martin Pelletier in the Financial Post:

Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has been warning consumers for some time  not to get too comfortable, since higher interest rates are on the horizon. We  think this is more of a scare tactic to get overleveraged consumers to rein in  their borrowing levels, because Canada is certainly not on solid enough footing  economically to raise interest rates, at least not until its trade partners  do.

The problem is many Canadians aren’t listening. They’re partying like its  1999, taking on vast amounts of debt because of low interest rates and robust  housing prices. While the level of household debt to GDP is falling in the U.S.,  it’s been increasing in Canada and now stands at more than 93 per cent.

Read more: Paying off your mortgage should take priority

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Posted in Interest rates, Predictions