Garth Turner’s track record speaks for itself

Does Garth really drive a Harley? Can we believe anything he says?

Does Garth really drive a Harley? Can we believe anything he says?

The tone of the  comments on Garth Turner’s has taken a pronounced turn. Many readers(and many more whose comments were deleted by Garth) of his blog have finally realized the emperor has no clothes. His long-awaited, much-anticipated housing crash didn’t occur. Garth now denies that he ever predicted a crash, despite writing a book entitled “After the Crash.” The peasants are becoming restless with the never-ending promises of ultra-low house prices. Promises which never become Garth’s fabled houseageddon. Some recent comments which would have been anathema a few years ago…

If your financial advice was half as good as your writing, I’d be buying a nice place in calgary for 360k, not 500k.

I want prices to fall, but its not falling at this point. It’s not as bad as Garth makes it seems. 

Spin it any way you like, over 8,000 sales in July for the GTA is a strong month and hardly an indicator of a collapsing housing market. 

The truth is that individuals who have been waiting on the sidelines for this event to occur have unfortunately lost an opportunity this time out.

Why is it when anyone posts an opposing view here that they get attacked, called names and chant delete him, delete him? 5 years and waiting for the big collapse maybe a tad frustrating? 

If anything, guys like Garth and Peter Schiff that keep calling for crashes just cause others to lose money by waiting for ever.

I’ve been waiting since 2006 for this mythical crash. Maybe in 2053?

Garth there are no signs that real estate is going down at this time in toronto…..after all these mortgage changes it still has held up…..if it is harder to buy now then why after one year has there not been serious cracks in the market…

And the wait continues and the predictions continue to be incorrect. 

When will prices be at the same point of when this blog started?

The resiliency of the market has stunned many experts over the past few years – I believe the best advice is to just to get on with your life, and view “Nostradamus type predictions” as “for entertainment purposes only”.

Remember when Garth was selling survival gear and squirrel recipes? Now pretending it never happened:

Garth’s realtorhate is running at a fever pitch. He now has a knee-jerk reaction to any commenter who disagrees with him. In adition to accusing them of being a realtor, he also calls them liars. Lashing out, making assumptions that are insulting and judgemental, could be a sign that he’s losing his grip.

Turner is a harsh critic of the media, but he forgets that at one time, he was quite happy to take money for advertising which today would be classified as “advertorials.”

  • Paying for time:
  • Wendy Mesley of CBC: I just wanted to ask you one question about how many financial links there can be to people on your show before it starts to get sticky.       Garth Turner: I’ll only answer that by way of saying that, ah, because we’re not the CBC and we don’t get money given to us, that we have to run a business for which revenues are generated and the bulk of the revenues are generated by selling sponsorships and advertising and what we call billboards.

His yearly predictions have been notoriously incorrect, with real estate boards across the country coming through year after year with more accurate forecasts. A pattern of making incorrect predictions.

Okay, so no crash. How about a correction and slow melt? Well, maybe lowering the amortization from 40 to 25 years should do it. Requiring a 5% down payment will most certainly bring it on. Sorry. Finally, a new silver bullet comes to the rescue. Monday’s announcement of a cap on CMHC guarantees will prove to be the catalyst. Garth hopes.

Turner is obviously feeling the heat. He had the misfortune of getting into a twitter battle with Calgary’s(maybe even Canada’s) top real estate stats guy, one person who Garth should never tangle with, because he will always come out looking second-best:

  1. You entirely miss the point. The culprit is the media reporting. Your blog post attacking me is weird.

  2. @garthturner Not you, your tactics. Always spinning, cherry-picking, massaging stats. Schtick is wearing thin & people seeing through you

  3. @MikeFotiou Mike: No smart person builds business by tearing down others. Your blog post will make no difference to me, quite a bit to you.

  4. @garthturner People want and deserve the truth. Your credibility outside your echo-chamber blog is waning. Was just some friendly advice.

  5. @MikeFotiou You, sir, are no judge of my credibility.

  6. @garthturner You’re absolutely right, my apologies. Your track record speaks for itself.


11 responses to “Garth Turner’s track record speaks for itself

  1. Garth Turner’s arrogance will be his demise. He has nothing left for himself but arrogance.
    Predictions? Fail
    Good advice? The jury’s still out
    The guy should get out more often and see how things go in the real world…:)

  2. Can we believe anything Garth Turner says? On his blog today, Garth straight-out accuses a commenter of being a liar. For someone who is highly critical of others who massage the stats, Garth is sadly inept when it comes to accuracy. Today on his blog he said the avg price of apt-condos in Calgary in Mar 2008 was $311,812. Fact-check: It was actually $299,383. Garth, you should get your facts straight before accusing people of being liars. Your credibility is in tatters.

  3. The Turner double-standard is alive and well. Garth believes it’s okay for him to tear down others, but not for anyone else: “Mike: No smart person builds business by tearing down others. Your blog post will make no difference to me, quite a bit to you.”

    The fact is, Mike was simply pointing out the fallacies in Garth’s post. Garth pretty much has the franchise cornered on “tearing-down.” When unable to refute with facts, Garth resorts to personal attacks and threats.

    Givng advice to Mike on how to run his business reinforces my belief that Garth Turner is a control freak: Unable to live and let live. Unable to allow people to make their own decisions.

  4. I could have been a Contender.

    Hi Bob
    The link to xurbia seems to be dead. Isn’t this his publishing company?
    What the heck is the deal with the cowboy boots?

    Indeed, the link is dead, and has been for a long time. That’s the whole point. I wonder if Garth could tell us why he was selling survival gear in the first place? Was it because of a looming housing crash? The crash which he never was predicting LOL. -Bob

    • I could have been a Contender.

      Gotcha. How about the boots?

      I don’t know. What did you see and where did you see it? Was it an ad? WordPress sometimes puts ads on their blogs(unless I pay to NOT have ads). -Bob

  5. How many $$Millions has turner lost his flock in the last 5 years? SELL SELL SELL, blog after blog. What a moron. All he ever talks about is real estate’s doom and how renters are so wise. Anyone ever think about why?

    I’ll tell you why.

    He tells you to sell your house for $500K or whatever, then give it to him to manage and he takes 1%. He couldn’t care less how much of your money he loses, as he still gets his 1% and you have no home.

    That’s why, it greases his pocket at your expense. Anyone who actually believes he’s running that blog around the clock because he’s such a good guy, truly is A Greater Fool, than anyone I know.

    YOU are now renting someone’s basement. Then when you challenge him, like others have and he denies saying he told you to sell or not to buy (depending on the circumstances).

    Quite a bizarre character, in fact I think he has some serious psychological issues. Imagine spending such an enormous amount of time claiming real estate is doomed and it never happens??!!

    Anyone who challenges him, gets called a real estate agent, a drunk, a liar, an idiot, stupid, etc. This is from a former MP and a financial advisor claiming to manage $100’s of Millions and this is how he behaves.

    I would do some serious soul searching if he had any of my money under his control. What protection do you have from his irrational behavior if it flows over to his investment decisions??

    You are screwed and he walks with his 1%

  6. Would you want him as an MP and financial advisor managing $100′s of Millions? He’s batted 1000% wrong the past 5 years and is in denial, no wonder he got fired from politics.

  7. hi
    i hate to be the voice of sanity here – but forget about garth, and all that bs.

    the feds for whatever reason – right or wrong, seem to feel they need to ‘pop’ whatever is going on.

    maybe they are right… maybe they are wrong.

    the major thing – prices are not sustainable in the long term….

    From what I’ve read of what bobs written.. he has never said they are.

    So. lets just sit back and see what happens. Maybe garth is wrong… maybe he is wrong!


    I’ve sat on the sidelines since 2007 – and honestly – I have no idea where things are going..


    Forget about Garth? Not while he misleads and distorts. People deserve to know the truth. – Bob

  8. “Spin it any way you like, over 8,000 sales in July for the GTA is a strong month and hardly an indicator of a collapsing housing market.”

    Hey you quoted me! I left that comment on The Great Fool.

    Just in here for a first time read, good stuff.

  9. Truth be told, housing prices have been increasing a rates well above increases in consumers incomes. Sooner or later this has to plateau and taper off. Garth has always been wrong about interest rates but I have posted many times on The Greater Fool that it won’t be interest rates the do in housing, it will be rampant merciless increases in energy costs that will hit homeowners from every angle. Real inflation is far above the franken-numbers our central banks peddle. A correction is inevitable in Canada. In fact if it doesn’t arrive I will advise my children to leave this jurisdiction for a more affordable one. No point in working yourself to death to pay for an overpriced house in this country. The south of France is cheaper.

  10. Where did my post go?

    It was in the moderation cue. Sorry, I don’t operate this blog between Nov – March. -Bob

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