Category Archives: Inaccuracies

Five years later, what are they saying?

Garth Turner, the GreaterFool

In 2008, when he wasn’t mercilessly insulting realtors, he was touring the country, pounding the table and adamantly advising everyone to refrain from buying a house. He even published a book entitled “After the Crash.” Now he blames the victims of his advice:

  • Here’s what he said Oct 28, 2008: “I forecast a minimum valuation drop of 15% in Toronto and 40% in the West.”A 40% drop would mean a median price of $234,000. Today’s median is $440,000. Epic fail.
  • “You will be basically unable to sell your home.” In Calgary, there’s such low inventory, you are “basically” unable to buy a home. 

Calgary Rip-Off

The following came from a notorious Calgary-hater who posted on my blog many times saying how he detested Calgarians and that he would never buy a house here. Five years, ago he said:

  • “My wife seems to think there wont be a bad crash in Calgary, and that the median wont correct to $250K. We had a big argument about this. I think it will crash hard by what I am seeing.”

    Somewhere he reversed direction:
  • “Dont wait in hopes that prices will come down because in Calgary you will wait forever.” – Calgary Rip-Off, proud Calgary home-owner http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/07/23/aliens/

He doesn’t agree with his buddy Garth:

  • “The only thing ridiculous(about Calgary) is housing. And the argument that you can force house prices down by not buying is nonsense. “
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Garth Turner misleads his readers about Calgary

Do not read

Turner said on his GreaterFool.ca blog: It is different in Calgary. It’s worse. Year/year prices are up a startling 9%, but sales have just turned negative compared to last Spring. SFH sales are down 6%, and listings have crashed 22%…The nation’s most American city risks getting a wee taste of Vegas.

For someone who prides himself on accurate and up-to-date data, this is quite an astonishing deception which he’s trying to pull. How about using data from April? You know, current, updated, relevant numbers?  We know that Gartho has a bookmark to these latest numbers CREB statistics. Sales for the city of Calgary are actually up 14% compared to last year, and new listings have turned the corner this month and are up 13%. It’s no secret that sales have been low because inventory is down 30% compared to historical averages. There just hasn’t been anything to buy.

When you quote statistics that are outdated to prove your point, it makes one wonder if you have an agenda. As it is, GreaterFool.ca seems so intent on having Alberta join the ranks of falling markets in Toronto and Vancouver that he is willing to mislead his readers. Calgary’s stable market has been a source of severe irritation for Turner. Maybe he’s so blinded by his dislike of anything Calgary that he believes his own chicanery and deceptions.

Transparency? Let’s see how forthcoming he is about Calgary’s numbers at the end of the month when sales are up. I predict silence. The greater tragedy, however, is that most of his docile followers don’t even question him.