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Market update Sep 30, 2013

First timers

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Market update Sep 1 – 26, 2013

Inventory vs sales and price2

The most serious threat to Calgary real estate

Trudeau

Justin Trudeau will follow in the footsteps of his father and demonize Alberta in order to get elected

“Screw the west, we’ll take the rest”

I have no doubt that previous strategies of the Liberal party will be resurrected come election time. It was Liberal Senator and campaign chairman Keith Davey who, in the 1980 election, summed up his party’s strategy as “Screw the West, we’ll take the rest.” Liberal prime minister Jean Chretien used Alberta as a foil for everything he claimed would go wrong if his Liberals were not re-elected in 2000, and it was Mr. Chretien who said he preferred to do politics with anyone but Albertans.

“It’s all Alberta’s fault.”

Trudeau6As we get closer to an election, and reality sets in, and Trudeau sees his support plummeting, he will do the same thing that his old man did to get elected. Demonize Alberta. Alberta has become the economic engine of the country, however, so there are serious consequences for the rest of the country as well.

Pretentious, vacuous, and bumbling, Justin Trudeau has the support of many Canadians based simply on his looks and his name. His platform consists of smoke and mirrors(legalizing marijuana). Trudeau and the Liberals stand for nothing except the goal of attaining power at any cost. Scarier still, Trudeau has most of the media eating out of his hand and asking him no difficult questions.

“Justin Trudeau and Justin Bieber have more in common than just a first name. Both guys are also adored by legions of love struck fans. Except in the case of Bieber the fans are teenage girls, whereas for Trudeau they are the Canadian media.”

In November 2010, Trudeau told a Quebec television show that he was tired of Albertans running the country and that, whether it was Jean Chretien or Brian Mulroney, Canada is better off when Quebecers are running the country.

“Canada isn’t doing well right now because it’s Albertans who control our community and socio-democratic agenda. It doesn’t work.”

Trudeau was then asked if he thought Canada was better served when there are more Quebecers in charge than Albertans.

Trudeau replied: “I’m a Liberal, so of course I think so, yes. Certainly when we look at the great prime ministers of the 20th century, those that really stood the test of time, they were MPs from Quebec… This country – Canada – it belongs to us.”

Trudeau3“This anti-Alberta attitude is deeply held in the Liberal party.” 

He’s also on the record for saying “…it would be a bad idea to abolish the Senate, because we have 24 senators from Quebec and there are just six from Alberta and six from British Columbia. That’s to our advantage.”  He is defending the status quo Senate because it gives Quebec disproportionate power at the expense of the West. 

Alberta has been a tried-and-true whipping boy of Liberal politicians. They have nothing to lose because there are no seats to be won by Liberals in Alberta, but they have tons to gain in central and eastern Canada. I expect he’s learned this lesson well from his daddy.

Baby Trudeau has accomplished nothing in his life except to charge schools and charities with speaking fees while he’s supposed to be in parliament, all the while collecting his MP pay from the taxpayer. Charities with lobbyists who later approach him for favours.

Will Trudeau Jr. follow in the steps of Trudeau Sr. and plunder Alberta?

Will Trudeau Jr. follow in the steps of Trudeau Sr. and plunder Alberta?

“Alberta will suffer if Trudeau becomes prime minister”

If he  becomes prime minister, Alberta will be plundered as occurred during the national energy program when real estate tanked and thousands of people lost their homes.

Two years ago, on the night that Stephen Harper was elected, I predicted on this blog that Justin Trudeau would become leader of the Liberals, and that our real estate values would be in jeopardy if Trudeau became prime minister. I have no doubt that as the pressure mounts for him to get elected, he will revert to the divisive style of regional politics that Liberals are known for.

“Justin Trudeau is a dabbler – he dabbled in teaching, dabbled in the arts, dabbled in acting, dabbled in activism. Now he’s dabbling in politics.” 

Trudeau has absolutely no idea what it’s like to work for a living. He is a silver-spoon millionaire who pretends to understand the middle class average guy. I hope there are enough intelligent Canadians who can see through the thin veneer of this airhead. He is an opportunist with little intelligence and no abilities. His most important decisions to date revolve around managing the $1.2 million trust fund which was bequeathed to him.

I hope I am wrong in thinking that Canadians would give this lightweight the reins of power on Oct 19, 2015. My greatest fear is that they will buy into the name, the looks, the hair, the smile, the youth, and completely disregard his agenda that will decimate Alberta, and consequently Canada.

“The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter” -Winston Churchill

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Market update Sep 1 – 20, 2013

Inventory vs sales and price2

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Market update Sep 1 – 13, 2013

Inventory vs sales and price2

What were they predicting?

Jan 14, 2013 MacLean’s Magazine headline: “Inside the Great Real Estate Crash of 2013. The sudden cooling in Canada’s housing sector seemingly struck without warning.” WTH? Sales up 37%, price up 12%, is not exactly a sudden cooling. Overheated would be more accurate. MacLean’s Crash and Burn

Jan 2013 Ben Rabidoux, analyst, from the MacLean’s story: “The demand for oversized homes is expected to fall.” Calgary has already set a record in 2013 for the most million dollar homes sold in one year. Luxury home market breaks annual sales record

April 2013, Garth Turner of GreaterFool.ca blurted out this forecast: “The beginning of the end in Cowtown.” End of what, inventory? Garth has the audacity to say in this post “realtors lie.” If Garth can misconstrue realtors’ accurate predictions into lies, what does that make Garth? When bulls croak 

Two years ago, Garth  ejaculated: “That the Calgary market will crack is a given. It’s different here, until it isn’t. Which is soon.” So far, his crack has resulted in the median price being up $40,000. What did he mean by soon?

Dec 20, 2008, Garth said he “expects housing prices will plunge another 30 per cent next year —  on top of the 11 per cent drop so far this year.”  http://www.ctvnews.ca/garth-turner-says-hard-times-have-just-begun-for-canada-1.353465#ixzz2fpRqGVha

Market update Aug 31, 2013

Calgary continues to experience a severe shortage of inventory. There is only a 54-day supply of single family homes on the market. Last year, we had a 90-day supply. Despite the shortage of listings, it was the second-best August ever for sales. More detailed statistics can be seen at Monthly stats updates

Inventory vs sales and price2

Bidding wars are also continuing with 14% of homes selling for list price or higher during the last 3 days of the month.

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Market update Aug 1 – 28, 2013

Inventory vs sales and price2

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Market update Aug 1 – 21, 2013

Inventory vs sales and price2

Why 3 years?

‘The real estate executive says July sales statistics from a historical standard were “tepid” and adds the numbers gets “the big headline” because the comparison is to a period when housing sales were slumping badly.’

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/08/15/canadas-housing-market-the-one-that-no-one-can-predict/

If you’ve followed my blog, you’ll be aware that I’ve been comparing the present year to the average of the past 3 years when I compile the market updates. The story in the Financial Post illustrates the reason why. A single year can be an outlier, an anomaly. It can severely distort the overall picture when comparing to a single year.

In the same article, David Madani of Capital Economics gets thrown under the bus for his history of incorrect predictions. He’s been predicting a 25% correction consistently for 30 months. If the Canadian market declines 25% from today’s prices, it will be pretty much back where it was when he started his forecasts. Now that Harold Camping has met his maker, perhaps Madani can take his place at the table.

It would appear that CREA is the voice of calm and reasonableness: “Canadian home sales have staged a bit of a recovery in recent months after having declined in the wake of tightened mortgage rules and lending guidelines last year,” said Gregory Klump, chief economist with CREA, who expects August results will also look strong as they are compared to a weak 2012.”

Accolades to First Foundation

When Madani first made his prediction in Feb 2011, it was rebutted by a mortgage broker who wrote, “people are not over-leveraged, that our incomes are sufficient to pay our obligations, and that the fundamentals are solid for a good, old fashioned, boring real estate market where reality overcomes emotion and conjecture.” It wasn’t sensationalist enough to attract any headlines, but it was accurate. Why David Madani is wrong

I’m not sure how a guy like Madani is able to keep his job in the light of such incorrect forecasts. On Capital Economics home page it states, “we have gained an enviable reputation for original and insightful research.” Good thing they don’t claim that it’s accurate.

Fireworks in Canmore

Fireworks in Canmore on Canada day. Sales are up 32% in the mountain town.

Sales are up 32% in the mountain town.

More recreational buyers are driving up the demand for Canmore property. Sales in the mountain town are up 32% so far this year. There are currently only 229 properties for sale in Canmore which is very low inventory and a drastic change from the depths of the recession felt in Canmore, when there were 400-500 listings on the market at any given time.

The iconic three sisters which overlook Canmore

The iconic three sisters which overlook Canmore

Canmore realtor Jessica Stoner reports:

“The Canmore real estate market is strong and very active.   It is not what many expected. It was  assumed the market sales volume would slow down as we recovered from the flood. It was also assumed that buyers would be shy about buying after such a powerful and damaging display by mother nature, knowing she can get out of our control at times.

However, the buyer’s market has made its intentions clear. Canmore is an ever popular destination and buyers are buying.”

Prices are very similar to last year’s, but as Stoner says, “Should these higher sales volumes continue, it is likely we will start to see price appreciation across the board  in Canmore in the remainder of 2013.”

Canmore average prices Jan – Aug 2013:

Single family homes $781,000

Townhouse-duplex $582,000

Condo $374,000

Hotel condo $167,000