Fitch Ratings Agency, in a report prepared to determine potential losses on pools of residential mortgages, says Alberta is sitting pretty compared to most other provinces.
“Actual nominal [price] declines could range from the low single digits for Alberta, up to more than 15 per cent for B.C. and Quebec over the next several years assuming values start falling immediately and taking into account inflation and other market dynamics…
Among the four largest provinces, Alberta is the least overvalued because it already went through a house price correction when crude oil prices fell in 2008, and prices have not returned to their 2007 peak.”
Crude is down to $89/barrel today. The bitumen bubble discount stands at $27 which means Alberta companies are receiving (as of today) $62/barrel for WTI. Also, US consumption is the lowest since 1996 and domestic production is up to a 17 year high. The Canadian dollar is reflecting this as its value continues to sink against the US greenback.
Got my eye on the Alberta budget this Thursday as I myself might lose my job because of falling oil prices and government cuts.
Lots of oil companies swung into the red in Q4 of 2012, Talisman pulling the trigger on layoffs. I’ve also noticed BMO lowered it mortgage rate – they must be running out of customers.
Be curious to see if I still have a job by the end of the month. I’m not alone.
RE is emotion driven so if (when) things start to slide we may see an over-correction. 20% drop would be healthy for the economy overall. Although those in the RE industry would see some pain. Sorry Bob, although established agents should do fine in any market.
Any reputable ratings agency would build in the “emotion aspect” into their predictions. The forecast for Alberta was “low single digits.” I would take that to mean 5% or less. -Bob
I wish not to go there but I will…
Any updates about squidly?
I will update when my lawsuit has been resolved. In the meantime, here’s a recent defamation ruling against a cowardly anonymous blogger