The Economist: “Canadian housing bubble set to burst”

…and here’s a comment from a reader:

‘The problem with all this talk of a “bubble bursting” in the Canadian real estate market is that the Economist have been saying this for many years now. How many years will they keep this up until it actually happens?..’

Read more Canadian housing bubble set to burst

RBC has a completely different take on the situation:

Calgary-area buyers continue to benefit from a strong provincial economy,  accelerating population growth and attractive affordability,” said Craig Wright,  senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC. “RBC (affordability) measures  for Calgary compare favourably against both historical norms and the national  average, keeping it one of the more affordable housing markets in Canada.”

Read more:  Calgary more affordable

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2 responses to “The Economist: “Canadian housing bubble set to burst”

  1. Alberta homeowners report the most success in the country in year-over-year debt reduction.

    A Manulife Bank of Canada survey has found that 60 per cent of homeowners in the province said they have less debt than they did 12 months ago.

    Across Canada, 55 per cent of homeowners were in that situation.

    Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Alberta+homeowners+most+successful+debt+reduction/8423966/story.html#ixzz2U7ljAMz9

    • Bob, if you made a few payments over the last year you should have less debt correct? 40% have increased their leverage from already historically high levels. On a Canada wide basis we are at all time high levels of 165% debt to disposable income and the trend is higher when rates normalize.

      Alberta is very resilient, we are fortunate for now that the effects of the tightening of credit has had little effect on an important part of our local economy and consumer confidence.

      The people that are talking imminent crash are forgetting that sometimes a market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, overbought conditions can last a long time when capital is bountiful. Capital is flocking to Calgary from the larger centers that are experiencing slowdowns, Calgary does have better fundamentals like the economy, net migration and historical low inventory.

      Reversion to the mean does occur, it can be a melt up followed by slow grind lower if no catalyst is present.

      I am curious of your opinion on whether price gains can continue as credit availability is reduced and lending standards are tightened? Wages are not accelerating therefore increased prices would have to come from loosening of lending standards/requirements and lower interest rates. We could see marginally lower rates but likely on the margin that not would spur much additional demand, law of diminishing returns.

      I am of the opinion that interests rates will not be raised in 2014 as our Canadian economy will likely be weaker due to reduced activity in the construction sector and that raising rates ahead of the USA would strengthen our dollar where the exporters/manufacturers would be hurt at a time where tightening would be catastrophic.

      I hope they are able to engineer the soft landing, just never had much faith in politicians and bureaucrats. De-leveraging cycles are never good for consumer based economies, that won’t be any different in Canada then has been experienced in other developed nations over the past 40 years.

      Easy monetary policy saved us in 2009, or did it create a larger problem we have to deal with?
      ******

      “I am curious of your opinion on whether price gains can continue as credit availability is reduced and lending standards are tightened?”

      It depends on inventory. If we can achieve 3500 or more SFH for sale, you’ll see prices stabilize or go down. -Bob

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