Is demand outstripping supply?

Lester asks “How does this compare in terms of statistics to the frenzied days of 2006? It seems demand is rapidly outstripping supply. Are the number of proprties, dom, absorption similar?”

Comparing July 2006 to today, the scariest number is SNL(sales-to-new-listings ratio). It’s at 80% right now, whereas in 2006 it was 52%. Also of concern this year: sales are slightly higher, and new listings are a lot lower. The trend is definitely more demand, less supply. The early months of 2006 were the craziest and it cooled down starting in July. This year, it seems to be getting hotter(and not just the weather!).

Luckily, we have 50% higher inventory, but at 3100 listings, that’s still considered very low. DOM is a lot higher than in 2006. It took, on average, 18 days to sell a house in 2006, today it’s 35 days.

The absorption rate today is 2.0 but was lower in 2006 at 1.5. That means we had a 45-day supply of homes for sale in 2006, and today we have 60. Both those numbers are very low and of concern.

All things considered, the situation does not bode well for buyers.


One response to “Is demand outstripping supply?

  1. Thanks bob

    I can’t quite get my head around all the doomers of the calgary market. What market could possibly collapse when there is a shortage of properties, rising wages, low unemployment, strong inward migration and high oil prices?

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