Market update Jun 1 -11, 2013

According to the  Teranet – National Bank house price index for May which was released today, Calgary prices recorded a 2.3% month-over-month gain, while year-over-year, Calgary’s index was up 5.8%.(CREB data shows the y-o-y median price up 4.1%)

Inventory vs sales and price2

Housing starts hit 5-year high

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported Monday that total starts in the Calgary census metropolitan area reached 1,078 units during the month, which was an increase from 949 in May 2012.

“The trend of total housing starts increased slightly in May, due to strong construction in both the single-detached and multi-family markets,” said Richard Cho, CMHC’s senior market analyst for Calgary.

Builders started construction on 41,438 new homes in Alberta in May — the highest this year and the first time since early 2008 that the figure has risen above the 40,000 mark.

“What’s more, the trend over the last several months clearly suggests that the housing market is heating up,” added Hirsch. “Between May 2012 and May of this year, housing starts are 14.1 per cent higher than they were in the previous 12-month period.

Read more in the Herald It’s boom time in Alberta

Canadians buying too many homes in the U.S.

Flag2I have numerous acquaintances who have purchased a holiday home in Arizona over the past three years, and I’m always hearing about the cheap houses there. If the purchases made by Calgarians were added to our MLS sales totals, the number would far surpass the record sales we experienced in 2005 – 2007.

Now there’s concern about Canadians pushing up the prices and making it difficult for Americans to buy homes, condemning them to become permanent renters. “Your average working family, at least where I live, is not able to buy a home,” Democratic Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez recently lamented during Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s latest testimony. “Cash offers, from in particular foreign markets, are wiping them off,” she said.

Read more: Canadian home buyers: from saviors to carpetbaggers

Cardel shows confidence in Calgary real estate

From the Calgary Herald:

Calgary home builder Cardel Homes is planning a 1,700-unit residential  development in Shawnee Park after purchasing 52 hectares of land that was  formerly known as the Shaw-Nee Slopes Golf Course.

The golf course ceased operations in 2011.

Cardel Homes purchased the southwest land, located alongside the southern  edge of Fish Creek Park, from Geo-Energy Enterprises Ltd. The sale price was not  disclosed.

The home builder said its city-approved project will consist of condo  apartments, town houses, and single-family estate homes, all adjacent to Fish  Creek Park.

Development will begin in the fall.

Read more:  Cardel Homes plans 1700 unit residential project

Silence says a lot

Easterner Garth Turner who has made no secret of his disdain for Alberta, has a posting on his pathetic blog which is critical of Calgary’s Attainable Homes program. No mention has been made of Calgary’s May real estate numbers, something he does for all other major cities in Canada.  After making predictions about a housing crash with home prices falling 50%, he can’t find anything to criticize here except a program which helps people buy their first homes. Seeing Calgary’s stable real estate market must be driving him crazy. He could have swallowed his pride and reported the truth: Calgary housing market smashes records in May.

You can be held accountable for what you say on the internet

Dickwad“I want to sincerely apologize to them for any personal or professional damages my actions may have caused them.” – Zack Bradley, journalism student

Great post on why everyone posting online needs to be aware of defamation issues. MacLeans: How not to grovel

Brian Burke’s lawsuit serves as a useful tool to remind anyone who posts a comment or tweets online to carefully consider the content of their post.  The message delivered by the B.C. court in Brian Burke’s case couldn’t be clearer. Comment online with malice at your peril: What Brian Burke’s defamation lawsuit means for social media.

This is a follow-up to my recent post: Someone else finally said “Enough”

A relevant comment: “you can easily get out of any and all liability by showing what you wrote was true. If it wasn’t true and you said it anyway, then the consequences are yours to suck up. That’s the price you pay for being a liar.
Don’t lie then there is no problem, what a novel concept.”

Update: This column in the Calgary Herald reinforces what I’m saying: Uncivil discourse in the social media is growing. “Were these people jerks before the advent of the internet yet had no venue to spout off, or have they, at least partially, become what they have because of the example set by other people?”

More optimism

Canmore2

Real estate activity in the beautiful mountain town of Canmore is on the upswing

Real estate activity in Canmore is very dependent upon the state of the economy in Calgary. When Calgarians have spare cash, they look for holiday homes in the mountains. As reported in the Canmore Leader, a couple recent events spell optimism for Canmore and Calgary.

  • March and April were the two busiest months in the local Canmore real estate market since 2007.
  • As of the end of April, the Town of Canmore had issued permits for just over $19.6 million in new construction for 2013. That’s more than double the value of permits issued for the first four months of 2012, when the town’s building permit total only hit $7.1 million from January to April, and only $27.3 million for the entire year.

Read more Building activity on the way up

May 2013 Calgary SFH market update

Average and median prices reached an all-time high in May. A dramatic increase in first-time buyers bodes well for the move-up buyer and the long-term health of the market. For the last two days of May, 21% of homes sold for list price or higher, so bidding wars are still going strong. You can see a more comprehensive update on my Monthly stats update.

With inventory approaching the 3500 level, I’m hopeful we’ll see a moderation in prices and an end to the bidding wars for the remainder of the year.

Inventory vs sales and price2

From the Calgary Herald: Calgary housing market smashes records in May

Would a 50% drop constitute a crash?

Garth TurnerI love how Garth “I didn’t say crash” Turner can pretend that he never called for a crash, and he does it with a straight face. His infamous crash has morphed into a “correction and slow melt.” He’s even convinced his followers that he never said CRASH. Today on his blog, a reader made this comment:  “Garth has never said there would be a precipitous drop in prices.”

Garth made this prediction in 2008 Real estate prices in Calgary, Edmonton, Fort Mac at 50% of 2006 levels.” That would put our average price at $200,000. Today it’s over $500,000. If that’s not a crash, pray tell what is. At the height of his scaremongering, he even had a “House-Aggedon” speaking tour. Then a few years later, he says Actually I have not said it will crash, but correct and flatline.  Please work on your reading.”

Another more recent prediction from Garth(Aug 2012): That the Calgary market will crack is a given…it’s different here, until it isn’t. Which is soon.” 

In this context, Garth probably meant 3-6 months when he said soon. The median price is up $30,000, or 7.1%  since he said that. I doubt that we’ll see any references to that prediction by Garth on his blog.

How does he get away with it? Is this a commentary on the intelligence level of his readers(Smoking Man excepted)? To quote Garth, “Don’t they hate being treated like morons?”

The Economist: “Canadian housing bubble set to burst”

…and here’s a comment from a reader:

‘The problem with all this talk of a “bubble bursting” in the Canadian real estate market is that the Economist have been saying this for many years now. How many years will they keep this up until it actually happens?..’

Read more Canadian housing bubble set to burst

RBC has a completely different take on the situation:

Calgary-area buyers continue to benefit from a strong provincial economy,  accelerating population growth and attractive affordability,” said Craig Wright,  senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC. “RBC (affordability) measures  for Calgary compare favourably against both historical norms and the national  average, keeping it one of the more affordable housing markets in Canada.”

Read more:  Calgary more affordable