The flood: for the record

Garth Turner has been notoriously wrong with his predictions about Calgary real estate. You’d think he’d know better…

CREB says…“While it might stave off a bit of activity on the sales from what we originally were thinking we were going to have for the rest of the year, I don’t think it’s going to be significant,” says real estate board economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “If there are less listings on the market because some of these properties are coming off, it actually could improve pricing activity in some of the other areas. You could actually see prices really continue to grow at the rates we’ve seen. So I wouldn’t expect much change there.”

Garth Turner(GreaterFool.ca) says…Then Calgary would be unique. Flood experience in other urban centres (like Brisbane in 2011) shows house values dropped by about 20% in affected areas, and as much as 60% for periods ranging between months and years. In fact in Brisbane (twice the population of Calgary) the average house price for the entire city – flooded or not – dipped between 10% and 30% for months after.

Other studies show that over a long period of time, there’s a flood discount, with properties that were underwater appreciating at a slower rate than those which stayed dry. http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/06/24/the-deluge/

After his epic failings in the past, Garth has become quite reluctant to come out and make a definite prediction for Calgary, but it would seem in his contorted way that he’s predicting Calgary will follow in Brisbane’s footsteps with a 60% drop. No, a 20% drop. Sorry, I meant a 10% – 30% drop.

Update Aug 31, 2013: Stay renting. This is not the time to buy in Cowtown. -Garth Turner http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/08/30/divine-guidance/

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3 responses to “The flood: for the record

  1. Brisbane is no Calgary! Big oil predicts the prices in Calgary and this flood -as bad as it might be , will soon to be wiped off the books of the un-relentless real estate market in Calgary.

  2. Not even the worst floods in memory in June appear to have slowed the Calgary housing market’s progression this year, says a report by RBC Economics Research.

    “A strong provincial economy, solid labour market, fast-rising population, and attractive affordability continue to fuel demand for Calgary housing,” said the bank’s latest Housing Trends and Affordability Report.

    It said monthly resale activity increased for six straight months, including in June (rising 1.1 per cent month-over-month) and July (up 3.1 per cent). On a quarterly basis, home resales in the area posted their second-strongest gain (12 per cent) in four years in the second quarter.

    http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Calgary+housing+market+forges+despite+June+flooding/8836197/story.html

  3. “Extensive flooding that hit southern Alberta in June has contributed to a booming housing market in Calgary.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/08/29/flood-calgary-houses-real-estate_n_3838438.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-alberta

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