“So we project 60 to 90 days from May 19th that MLS sales will be reported that will reveal the market died on May 19th.”

Garth Turner and Ross Kay

Garth Turner and Ross Kay

Garth “I didn’t say crash” Turner has been discredited numerous times because of his hallucinatory predictions, followed up by self-inflicted amnesia. He’s admitted that if he can’t find a source for his theories, he simply makes up his own data. He’s now hitched his wagon to Ross Kay, a fortune-teller with startling revelations.

I’d never heard of Ross Kay until Garth publicized this sensational prediction, but being endorsed by Garth Turner is a warning sign of sketchy and unreliable data. I wouldn’t have given Kay a second thought, except he’s also accusing CREB of double-reporting sales. We analysed this in my previous post and have shown there is no evidence for Ross Kay’s claims. Waiting on Ross Kay’s open and full disclosure. I’ve asked Kay numerous tmes to produce the evidence, but he has gone silent.

Let’s now look at Ross Kay’s prediction that the market died on May 19, 2013 and see how it relates to Calgary’s data four months later. (Ross was sure it would manifest itself within 60 – 90 days, so we’ve given him a couple extra months for good measure).

The following blog post was written by Garth Turner on May 29, 2013 on the Greaterfool.ca http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/05/29/a-downward-spiral/ :

The day it died (by Garth Turner, GreaterFool.ca)

In 2008, GTA realtor Ross Kay invented an ‘engagement index’ to statistically chart house horniness. For five years he’s been diligently amassing data, filtering and weighting it, and watching in fascination as 60 to 90 days later changes in his index appeared as official published real estate data.

His track record (he says): 100%.

Hours ago he released what he considers ‘drastic’ results, in a warning to his clients. “Over the course of the last 9 weeks, our index has revealed a downward spiraling real estate marketplace, with results that will not reveal themselves in MLS sales data until finally reported by Organized Real Estate Associations,” he wrote on his site. (This has been removed from his site – Bob)

In a note to me, he adds:

“On May 19th, 2013 we recorded the lowest value of Canadian consumer engagement in real estate since 2010.  What is scary here is that on April 8th 2012, we reached an all time high engagement value.  The May 19th numbers for 2013 represent about a 72% decline over that peak number.   This massive decline raises grave concerns not being reported in newspapers across the country.

“So we project 60 to 90 days from May 19th that MLS sales will be reported that will reveal the market died on May 19th. Our numbers have not been wrong since 2008. So as it turns out the peak of the real estate market in Canada was April 8th 2012, as posted here on Greater Fool.  Peak pricing was established and as recorded MLS sales prices now show, anyone who bought in competition around that date paid too much.”

Is this credible? Obviously we’ll find out in a couple of months…

How did Ross Kay’s prediction play out in Calgary? Was Ross Kay 100% correct? 50% correct? or dead wrong?

September 2013 price is up 9.2% compared to last year.

September sales are up 20% compared to last year.

Inventory, which you would expect to increase in a dead market, is down 20%.

Would there be bidding wars during a dead market? 18% of homes were sold for list price or higher in Sep.

Not exactly the sign of a dead market.


15 responses to ““So we project 60 to 90 days from May 19th that MLS sales will be reported that will reveal the market died on May 19th.”

  1. Mikey the Realtor

    Turner is running on fumes, he needs to keep the racket going as long as possible to suck as many people into his advisory business. I’ve said it many times on his blog that rates will stay low for a very long time, the gooberment has no choice here, even the bond king himself has come out in the last week and said the same thing, a RE crash or not is dependent on jobs, if jobs are around then people would rather eat KD and toilet water as their supper but will pay for the mortgage.

    Kay IMO is an opportunist just like Turner, he is looking to cash in on bad news.

  2. Mike the Realtor is exactly as his name states, a realtor. So I wonder what his opinion on Real Estate is going to be? You both have biased views and your opinion reflects that. We can argue that Turner is a financial advisor is in the same boat except with equities. Either way, your audience should read both perspectives and formulate their own opinion on the subject of real estate. In the case of ALL realtors, I have yet to see any kind of data that supports supports on-going real estate appreciation. All the data you guys provide is solely based on past performance and doesn’t take into account key variables such as dept, incomes, eventual interest rate increases.

    You’re making assumptions which have no basis in fact. I’m not making any claims of “on-going real estate appreciation,” and never have. Turner needs to be held accountable. He has been incorrect with his predictions and readers deserve to know that, as it will impact his credibility. I expect people will do their homework before buying or selling and take into account all factors. -Bob

    • You focus on the educated guesses and try to make it seem as though he passes them off as fact. The message is simple, diversify your financial assets, don’t put all your money in a house. You don’t have to follow that advise, you can put all your money in a house however there are certain risks involved in that.

      • An educated guess implies some thought, research and training, so we can ignore the “educated” part. Turner does not preface his predictions with the disclaimer that they are “guesses.” -Bob

  3. Let’s see now, the latest sales stats indicate that the Vancouver market is up over 60% YTD, Toronto is up 30% , yeah that’s quite a “correction” all right.
    I’ve read Ross Kay’s website musings and it is classic bafflegab. He writes a great deal and says very little. Other than unsubstaniated allegations, incoherent jargon, shameless self promotion and delusions of grandeur, there’s not much else.

  4. For 6 years now, a lot of people have tried to scare alot of home owners or potential ones. What was the motivator? Envy? Cant qualify? Whatever the reason behind the home ownership hate-on, there were many blogs and sites that stirred the pot. Most of them are now defunct. 99% of a real estate crash pumpers and groupies have now volatized. Maybe they bought homes…
    Funny thing, seems that Garth Turner is the sole survivor, having progressively morphed his blog early on. From funny guesstimations, still informative but biased in 2008 to permanently stopping making any meaningful predictions by late 2009. Nowadays, Garth authors some pitiful “Dear Abby” style daily chronicle. He ridicules real life home owners’ bad luck and insults his readers. Wow! How much longer can he go on???

  5. Check out this quote from Barf Turder from his blog yesterday: “Daily, realtors and those indelibly invested in real estate come to this miserable blog to poke and jab and look for flaws in me or my arguments. There are many. I admit it. Predicting when lemmings in suicide vests will relent is an imprecise art.”
    Imprecise? Yeah, you could say so. If by imprecise you mean dead wrong 5 years running.

  6. Mikey the Realtor

    One thing Turner forgets is that housing is not merely an investment like a stock but a place for people to live, I say that the word investment has been misused just like the word DR but whether we rent or buy we have to pay, at the end a renter gets 0 back from the years he paid into his place and an owner gets something at least, of course cost analysis has to be done between the two before one buys, if it costs 150% a month more to own over renting then it’s clear what the decision should be.

  7. Mikey the Realtor

    Looks like Turner is telling his readers to start buying, many are going to be mad as hell for having to wait and having to spend more now then if they bought 5 years ago plus the amount of rental payments they made, ohhhh, Turner is going to get destroyed in the comments section but of course 99% of it will be deleted so no show, sorry. And of course you’ll get the regular boot lickers telling him how great he is and how handsome he looks on his harley.

  8. Old turdo has been saying this same crap for 6 years and once again in his latest blogo.

    “Boomers should dump houses before the market erodes, and get invested in income-producing assets. Already properties are turning more illiquid in many markets. How do so many people not get this?”

    BLAL BLAH….what a goof!

    If anyone’s keeping tabs, he also said “”BUY America….buy buy buy US….QE will end this summer””….the summer has passed and QE is going stronger then ever…wrong again dumbo…LMAO!!

    Newsflash – turdo – The US has SHUT DOWN it’s Gov’t = BROKE = Bankrupt
    Yeah you go buy amerika Einstein … in fact why don’t you move there. Detroit could use a toy like you.

    Help me out folks- has twerpo ever been right in any of his 6 years worth of predictions? ONCE? NO? Nothing? Never you say?

    The only sheep left on his blog are the ones that either never bought based on his advice 6 years ago or who sold recently based on his WRONG market collapse predictions.


  9. Here is my take.
    There is nothing wrong with making predictions or assessments as long as they are based on some serious and dependable indicators. Once an assessment does not occur due to -say – unforeseen events, one is in the right to modify that prediction/assessment based on that new information. This way of proceeding will maintain credibility with the assessor. When one does anything else, such as denying having made said prediction or deleting comments when reminded of explaining oneself is telling of someone’s character. Garth has lost all credibility and his blog is and has always been a PR platform to attract prospects. From wikipedia: “Turner works as a financial lecturer and an independent, fee-based, licensed financial advisor based in Toronto”.

  10. Stop the presses! Barf Turder finally admits he was wrong in his latest post. Wow ! What a shock!

    Mind you he goes to great lengths in the post bloviating how everyone else is so stupid, thus making him wrong, that the mea culpa is less than genuine. He should have just left it at “I was wrong.” Making predictions, being dead wrong, then making excuses, is just so lame.

  11. Mikey the Realtor

    Bob, it looks like your blog put some pressure on Turner to somewhat admit he was wrong after 6 years, a start I guess but it doesn’t fix the issue of the millions lost because of his poor predictions. But of course, the regular boot lickers weren’t fazed one bit as they continued their work on Turner’s cowboy boots.

  12. He wears the boots because he is short. Funny that he pokes fun at Jim Flaherty for not being tall.
    There is a good chance he may be correct on housing. The problem is his unmitigated faith in a balanced portfolio, the excellent shape the US economy is in, Europe is fixed… He should be on CNBC. Thankfully for us Harper took him to the woodshed. People like this with real power are frightening. He has glommed onto this housing meme to some sort of media attention. Best ignored, really.

  13. @ Tall Tales:

    Did you read what he wrote in the past X number of years?

    No, there isn’t a good chance he may be correct on housing. Actually there is zero. Nil.

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