Category Archives: Greater Fool

The flood: for the record

Posted on July 7, 2013 | 3 comments

Garth Turner has been notoriously wrong with his predictions about Calgary real estate. You’d think he’d know better…

CREB says…“While it might stave off a bit of activity on the sales from what we originally were thinking we were going to have for the rest of the year, I don’t think it’s going to be significant,” says real estate board economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “If there are less listings on the market because some of these properties are coming off, it actually could improve pricing activity in some of the other areas. You could actually see prices really continue to grow at the rates we’ve seen. So I wouldn’t expect much change there.”

Garth Turner(GreaterFool.ca) says…Then Calgary would be unique. Flood experience in other urban centres (like Brisbane in 2011) shows house values dropped by about 20% in affected areas, and as much as 60% for periods ranging between months and years. In fact in Brisbane (twice the population of Calgary) the average house price for the entire city – flooded or not – dipped between 10% and 30% for months after.

Other studies show that over a long period of time, there’s a flood discount, with properties that were underwater appreciating at a slower rate than those which stayed dry. http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/06/24/the-deluge/

After his epic failings in the past, Garth has become quite reluctant to come out and make a definite prediction for Calgary, but it would seem in his contorted way that he’s predicting Calgary will follow in Brisbane’s footsteps with a 60% drop. No, a 20% drop. Sorry, I meant a 10% – 30% drop.

Update Aug 31, 2013: Stay renting. This is not the time to buy in Cowtown. -Garth Turner http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/08/30/divine-guidance/

3 Comments

Posted in Flood of 2013, Greater Fool, Predictions

Garth “FrankenTurner”

Posted on July 3, 2013 | 1 comment

When the data doesn’t agree with your agenda, there must be something inherently wrong with it. When the data agrees with your agenda, it’s infallible. A wonderful and poignant comment was posted on the GreaterFool.ca blog by my favourite character over there, Smoking Man:

#40Smoking Man on 07.03.13 at 10:21 pm

Gee Wizz garth, Franken numbers ha.

They weren’t Franken numbers last fall when we were in seasonal decline..

Definition of Franken number = when stats go against someone’s wishful bias.

1 Comment

Posted in Greater Fool

Silence says a lot

Posted on June 5, 2013 | 3 comments

Easterner Garth Turner who has made no secret of his disdain for Alberta, has a posting on his pathetic blog which is critical of Calgary’s Attainable Homes program. No mention has been made of Calgary’s May real estate numbers, something he does for all other major cities in Canada.  After making predictions about a housing crash with home prices falling 50%, he can’t find anything to criticize here except a program which helps people buy their first homes. Seeing Calgary’s stable real estate market must be driving him crazy. He could have swallowed his pride and reported the truth: Calgary housing market smashes records in May.

3 Comments

Posted in City of Calgary, Greater Fool

Would a 50% drop constitute a crash?

Posted on May 24, 2013 | 4 comments

Garth TurnerI love how Garth “I didn’t say crash” Turner can pretend that he never called for a crash, and he does it with a straight face. His infamous crash has morphed into a “correction and slow melt.” He’s even convinced his followers that he never said CRASH. Today on his blog, a reader made this comment:  “Garth has never said there would be a precipitous drop in prices.”

Garth made this prediction in 2008 “Real estate prices in Calgary, Edmonton, Fort Mac at 50% of 2006 levels.” That would put our average price at $200,000. Today it’s over $500,000. If that’s not a crash, pray tell what is. At the height of his scaremongering, he even had a “House-Aggedon” speaking tour. Then a few years later, he says “Actually I have not said it will crash, but correct and flatline.  Please work on your reading.”

Another more recent prediction from Garth(Aug 2012): “That the Calgary market will crack is a given…it’s different here, until it isn’t. Which is soon.” 

In this context, Garth probably meant 3-6 months when he said soon. The median price is up $30,000, or 7.1%  since he said that. I doubt that we’ll see any references to that prediction by Garth on his blog.

How does he get away with it? Is this a commentary on the intelligence level of his readers(Smoking Man excepted)? To quote Garth, “Don’t they hate being treated like morons?”

4 Comments

Posted in Greater Fool, Predictions

Garth Turner misleads his readers about Calgary

Posted on April 20, 2013 | 21 comments

Do not read

Turner said on his GreaterFool.ca blog: It is different in Calgary. It’s worse. Year/year prices are up a startling 9%, but sales have just turned negative compared to last Spring. SFH sales are down 6%, and listings have crashed 22%…The nation’s most American city risks getting a wee taste of Vegas.

For someone who prides himself on accurate and up-to-date data, this is quite an astonishing deception which he’s trying to pull. How about using data from April? You know, current, updated, relevant numbers?  We know that Gartho has a bookmark to these latest numbers CREB statistics. Sales for the city of Calgary are actually up 14% compared to last year, and new listings have turned the corner this month and are up 13%. It’s no secret that sales have been low because inventory is down 30% compared to historical averages. There just hasn’t been anything to buy.

When you quote statistics that are outdated to prove your point, it makes one wonder if you have an agenda. As it is, GreaterFool.ca seems so intent on having Alberta join the ranks of falling markets in Toronto and Vancouver that he is willing to mislead his readers. Calgary’s stable market has been a source of severe irritation for Turner. Maybe he’s so blinded by his dislike of anything Calgary that he believes his own chicanery and deceptions.

Transparency? Let’s see how forthcoming he is about Calgary’s numbers at the end of the month when sales are up. I predict silence. The greater tragedy, however, is that most of his docile followers don’t even question him.

21 Comments

Posted in Calgary SFH, Greater Fool, Inaccuracies, Statistics

As predicted

Posted on April 11, 2013 | 4 comments

Sales have been repressed this year because of low inventory. A few days ago I predicted we’d see more listings and consequently more sales this month. Unlike Garth Turner’s predictions, mine come true.

So far this month new listings are up 18% compared to last year, and sales are up 17%.

I have a lot of respect for someone who admits they screwed up. If you got it wrong, man up and admit it and move on. Denial and obfuscation is some people’s style, however. Yesterday Turner was taking credit for his predictions, but there are a few of his readers who can see through the spin, such as this  one:

#97Vik on 04.11.13 at 12:08 am

Garth,

Price went up 30-40% in the GTA. You call 15% correction? Nice try dude. More like a dent. I feel sorry for the people who listened to you for the past 5 years.

We all know what prices inflated. I’m telling you why this period is over. — Garth

It would be enlightening to know what excuse he would use for his incorrect prediction about Calgary’s prices dropping to 50% of 2006 levels.

4 Comments

Posted in Calgary SFH, Greater Fool, Market update, Predictions

“…the beginning of the end in Cowtown.”

Posted on April 7, 2013 | 5 comments

Overheard on greaterfool.ca on April 1:  “It is not a bed of roses in Cowtown just wait and see over the next 2 mths.”

crocus2The 6% drop in sales in March is intoxicating to the doomers who can’t contain their excitement at seeing Calgary finally meeting the same fate as Toronto and Vancouver.  Even this insignificant blip created hysteria among the bubble bloggers, who are conveniently blinded to the realities of accurate data.

From a salivating Garth Turner this prediction: “… the beginning of the end in Cowtown.”

It’s been annoying and irritating to Turner to see the stability of the Calgary market, given his distaste of Alberta. In his frenzy to see Calgary crash, he’s conveniently forgetting that he once said, “one month means nothing.”

As for his credibility, Garth also predicted in 2008 “Real estate prices in Calgary, Edmonton, Fort Mac at 50% of 2006 levels. ” That would put our average price at $200,000. Today it’s over $500,000.

Most fail to mention that new listings have been down, year-to-year, for 10 consecutive months, or that homes were at record high prices in March. How do you buy a house when there’s nothing coming on the market that appeals to you, or is in your price range?

April will be the first month where we see an increase in new listings,  Y to Y,  since May 2012. More selection will hopefully result in a moderation of the prices, also resulting in increasing sales.

To April 6, new listings are up 13% compared to the 3-year average, and up  5% compared to last year.

Spring will bring more listings, lower prices, more sales. It may not be a bed of roses, but crocuses are beautiful, too.

5 Comments

Posted in Calgary SFH, Fearmongers, Greater Fool, Predictions

“So buy a house. Let us know how it turns out.” — Garth

Posted on March 19, 2013 | 6 comments

I’m glad you asked. Garth Turner(GreaterFool.ca) has been telling us not to buy a house since 2008. If you live in Calgary and took his advice, here’s how it would have turned out. Furthermore, in the past, you would have had a nice selection of homes to choose from, but with today’s miniscule inventory, you can’t be choosy.

If you bought a house...

Famous last words

Seven months ago, this prediction for Calgary from Garth Turner at GreaterFool.ca: “That the Calgary market will crack is a given…It’s different here, until it isn’t. Which is soon.”    

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/08/24/all-hat/

The average price has risen $45,000 since he made that guess. Any thoughts on what he meant by “soon?”

6 Comments

Posted in Greater Fool, Predictions

Garth is the best

Posted on September 27, 2012 | 11 comments

Photo from the GreaterFool.ca

Welcome to everyone who is clicking over from Garth Turner’s blog, the GreaterFool, but a special good morning to Garth himself who will be looking in periodically to get the latest info on the Calgary housing market. Garth had this to say about me… “Some realtors, like this one in Calgary, can’t function without worrying about me, reacting to me or trashing me.”

Well, Gartho, I function just fine without you, and I’ve never trashed you. That’s your preserve. As I’ve said before, if you stop telling lies about me, I’ll stop telling the truth about you.

For this special occasion when I have hundreds of Garth’s readers  looking in, I thought it would be appropriate to honour him with this online poll:  Garth Turner’s crack.

Garth is crazy about my blog

Be sure to check these pages which Garth is anxious for you to see I like Garth and Predictions.

Garth, thanks for following my blog so closely. I see you’ve logged in 14 times in the past few days. When you logged in tonight at 5:56 pm(MDT), you spent 22 minutes of your precious time reading my blog. You certainly know where to find accurate information on the Calgary housing market, but I can’t believe you’re still using that tired and worn out Vista operating system. It looks like you used your HTC Panache Android smartphone, though, when you checked my blog before you went to bed at 9:48 pm(MDT). You’re up to 28 times on that one. If you had stayed up a few minutes longer, you would have seen this post.

Despite his protestations, Garth is an avid reader of my blog. This is how he gets his day started.

With such intense interest in my blog, do you think it’s possible that Garth is considering Moving to Calgary?

Thanks, Garth, for posting the link to my blog. I hope you’ll continue to do it often. The blawg dogs will be better informed because of it, and I know that’s your main goal, to make people aware of the truth. I hope you continue to enjoy reading my blog, and we’re looking forward to seeing you in Calgary and hearing your scary predictions, which never seem to come true. For example, how did these turn out:

  •  Neighbourhood food shortages as just-in-time delivery systems are disrupted
  • Real estate prices in Calgary, Edmonton, Fort Mac at 50% of 2006 levels
  • Scaling back of 2010 Olympics in Vancouver
  • Failure of a major Canadian bank, leading to emergency merger.
  • Banks ordered temporarily shut and restrictions on cash withdrawals.

I won’t go into your Nortel predictions.

If you’re hoping to buy a house here, you’ll need to be quick on the draw. Look at this recent listing:

The above house was listed in the morning and had a conditional sale by sundown

11 Comments

Posted in Greater Fool, Predictions

Sucking and blowing

Posted on July 12, 2012 | Leave a comment

Have you noticed something missing from the bubble blogs over the past few days? Conspicuous by its absence?

When sales are robust and prices are climbing, it’s a daily occurrence to hear that the real estate board’s stats are unreliable. An untrustworthy source of information. You know, cooking the books.

Now that sales and prices are declining( a normal occurrence in summer), we never hear mention of it. Suddenly, the real estate board’s numbers are infallible. Impeccable, trustworthy, and incapable of error.

Sucking and blowing, both at the same time.

******
It’s football season – again

Three times the mortgage rules have been tightened with little change in sales or prices in the Calgary market. Three times the blog dawgs were in a feeding frenzy for a few days. Three times they lined up to make the kick. Three times Lucy pulled the ball away.

For a fourth time, they’ve all lined up. What will be the result this time?

Go Stampeders!!(except when you play the ‘Riders 🙂 )

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Examples of the trustworthy stats

A zealot from TheGreaterFool.ca, ironically with the name Questioning Calgary Stats left an anecdotal comment today: “Some comments on this blog provide examples of people who bought in Calgary in 2008, 2009, etc. and can only sell for a loss today.”

Let’s look at the facts. Over the past three days, 25 homes have sold which were puchased originally in 2008 – 2009. A total of 16 sold for more than the purchase price, or 64%. Not surprisingly, it appears that only the losers go to TheGreaterFool.ca.

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Bidding wars update

Over the past three days, 11% of homes sold for list price or higher. A tear-down in Rideau Park sold in one day for $30,100 over list. Selling price was $880,000.

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Posted in Fearmongers, Greater Fool, Mortgages, Statistics