Category Archives: Predictions

Alberta is least overvalued

Posted on March 4, 2013 | 3 comments

Fitch Ratings Agency, in a report prepared to determine potential losses on pools of residential mortgages, says Alberta is sitting pretty compared to most other provinces.

“Actual nominal [price] declines could range from the low single digits for Alberta, up to more than 15 per cent for B.C. and Quebec over the next several years assuming values start falling immediately and taking into account inflation and other market dynamics…

Among the four largest provinces, Alberta is the least overvalued because it already went through a house price correction when crude oil prices fell in 2008, and prices have not returned to their 2007 peak.”

Read more Canadian home prices overinflated by 20%: Fitch

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Posted in Predictions

Garth is the best

Posted on September 27, 2012 | 11 comments

Photo from the GreaterFool.ca

Welcome to everyone who is clicking over from Garth Turner’s blog, the GreaterFool, but a special good morning to Garth himself who will be looking in periodically to get the latest info on the Calgary housing market. Garth had this to say about me… “Some realtors, like this one in Calgary, can’t function without worrying about me, reacting to me or trashing me.”

Well, Gartho, I function just fine without you, and I’ve never trashed you. That’s your preserve. As I’ve said before, if you stop telling lies about me, I’ll stop telling the truth about you.

For this special occasion when I have hundreds of Garth’s readers  looking in, I thought it would be appropriate to honour him with this online poll:  Garth Turner’s crack.

Garth is crazy about my blog

Be sure to check these pages which Garth is anxious for you to see I like Garth and Predictions.

Garth, thanks for following my blog so closely. I see you’ve logged in 14 times in the past few days. When you logged in tonight at 5:56 pm(MDT), you spent 22 minutes of your precious time reading my blog. You certainly know where to find accurate information on the Calgary housing market, but I can’t believe you’re still using that tired and worn out Vista operating system. It looks like you used your HTC Panache Android smartphone, though, when you checked my blog before you went to bed at 9:48 pm(MDT). You’re up to 28 times on that one. If you had stayed up a few minutes longer, you would have seen this post.

Despite his protestations, Garth is an avid reader of my blog. This is how he gets his day started.

With such intense interest in my blog, do you think it’s possible that Garth is considering Moving to Calgary?

Thanks, Garth, for posting the link to my blog. I hope you’ll continue to do it often. The blawg dogs will be better informed because of it, and I know that’s your main goal, to make people aware of the truth. I hope you continue to enjoy reading my blog, and we’re looking forward to seeing you in Calgary and hearing your scary predictions, which never seem to come true. For example, how did these turn out:

  •  Neighbourhood food shortages as just-in-time delivery systems are disrupted
  • Real estate prices in Calgary, Edmonton, Fort Mac at 50% of 2006 levels
  • Scaling back of 2010 Olympics in Vancouver
  • Failure of a major Canadian bank, leading to emergency merger.
  • Banks ordered temporarily shut and restrictions on cash withdrawals.

I won’t go into your Nortel predictions.

If you’re hoping to buy a house here, you’ll need to be quick on the draw. Look at this recent listing:

The above house was listed in the morning and had a conditional sale by sundown

11 Comments

Posted in Greater Fool, Predictions

What happened in June?

Posted on June 30, 2012 | Leave a comment

Canada Day in Canmore, Alberta

The housing market in Calgary continues to defy gravity(and all the predictions that were calling for a crash).  The biggest issue we had this spring was a shortage of attractive listings. I predicted back in the winter that we’d eventually see higher prices if the lack of inventory persisted, and that’s exactly what happened. The median price is up 9.2% compared to December.

With so little for buyers to choose from, it’s surprising to see that year-to-date sales are up 19% compared to 2011, and up 12% compared to the past three years. More complete statistics can be seen here Monthly stats update

Bidding wars update

Over the past three days, 12% of homes went for list price or higher. A home in North Glenmore which was listed for $489,500 was sold for $492,500, with an accepted offer coming after 2 days on the market. The home was purchased in 2007 for $450,000.

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Posted in Bidding wars, Calgary SFH, Month-end, Predictions

29,289 new residents in Calgary

Posted on June 29, 2012 | Leave a comment

Calgary’s population increased 2.86% over the past year, higher than the boom year of 2007. Where will they all live?

These statistics go a long way in explaining the torrid pace of home sales this spring. Total residential sales are up 21% this year, with an increase in price of 2.1%. Continue reading →

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Posted in Population, Predictions

Mortgage changes are too late

Posted on June 25, 2012 | Leave a comment

Two Moody’s analysts maintain that Canadians have borrowed too much and consumer debt will be the undoing of some:

‘Last week’s mortgage changes unveiled by regulators and the federal government are positive for Canada’s banks, but “may be too late to avoid a housing correction,” according to analysts at Moody’s Investors Service.’

Read more Mortgage changes may be too late

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Posted in Mortgages, Predictions, Price correction

No increase in interest rates anytime soon

Posted on June 24, 2012 | Leave a comment

This is an opinion piece from Martin Pelletier in the Financial Post:

Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has been warning consumers for some time  not to get too comfortable, since higher interest rates are on the horizon. We  think this is more of a scare tactic to get overleveraged consumers to rein in  their borrowing levels, because Canada is certainly not on solid enough footing  economically to raise interest rates, at least not until its trade partners  do.

The problem is many Canadians aren’t listening. They’re partying like its  1999, taking on vast amounts of debt because of low interest rates and robust  housing prices. While the level of household debt to GDP is falling in the U.S.,  it’s been increasing in Canada and now stands at more than 93 per cent.

Read more: Paying off your mortgage should take priority

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Posted in Interest rates, Predictions

In 282 years, Calgary home price will be $276,776

Posted on June 13, 2012 | 3 comments

The Plunge-O-meter guy comes up with some totally bizarre predictions. He won’t be around to be accountable, but he predicts in the year 2294(yes, that’s 282 years from now), the average price in Calgary will be $276,776. It will drop an average of $66/mo for 3383 months. http://www.chpc.biz/plunge-o-meter.html

By comparison, he predicts the demise in Edmonton will be quick. In a short 23 years, Edmonton’s average price will be $216,187.

3 Comments

Posted in Calgary SFH, Fearmongers, Predictions

What’s in store for the summer?

Posted on May 25, 2012 | Leave a comment

This spring, I’ve set up searches for buyers with their criteria for price, location, etc., and it’s not unusual to see as few as one listing per month. This doesn’t give the prospective home buyer much encouragement.

It’s been a hectic market with low inventory, a shortage of new listings, attractive homes selling quickly, rising prices, and the highest sales in five years. I’ve been telling buyers to hang in there, because I expect we’ll see a lot more inventory in the summer months and not so many buyers. Hopefully the prices will stabilize or drop as well.

Vancouver inventory is at an all-time high with the lowest sales in years. Toronto, by most accounts, will be in the same boat soon. What about Calgary? Is it different here?

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Posted in Calgary SFH, Predictions

Remember 2007?

Posted on May 8, 2012 | 2 comments

It’s almost unfathomable that home prices in Calgary could ever reach the lofty heights that were attained in 2007. That was the year when Calgary home prices reached their peak. Today, Continue reading →

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Posted in Calgary SFH, Predictions

How long will it take to sell?

Posted on May 7, 2012 | 3 comments

Update: It took 21 days for an accepted conditional offer, and 32 days for a firm sale at $430,000.

It’s been a while since I’ve asked readers to guess the days on market of a new listing, but here we go. It’s pretty rare to find a house in such an atractive area for $172/sq ft in Calgary. Check out this New listing in Ranchland Estates

It needs a bit of work, but most homes of this size and era are selling for around $200/sq ft if they’re in original condition. With a major renovation, this home would likely be  selling in the $575,000 – $600,000 range.

I did a search on MLS of all active listings between 2500 – 2800 sq ft of a similar style(2-storeys and 2-storey splits). The results show 170 listings, and the lowest priced was this one. The next lowest was $474,800.

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Posted in Calgary SFH, How long will it take to sell?, Predictions