What happened in September?

Looking at the September statistics in isolation will not tell you the complete story. It still looks like we’ve got increasing sales along with an inventory shortage, while the median price is up:

The trend is your friend

More importantly, it appears from the table below that we will see decreased sales in October if the trend continues. We’ve had eight consecutive months of sales increases, but I predict that will come to an end next month. What’s the reason for the imminent sales drop? We’ve had sales increases despite extremely low inventory. Is the long-awaited correction finally going to hit Calgary, or is it that buyers have finally run out of homes to purchase?

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4 responses to “What happened in September?

  1. Hi Bob. Mike did a similar article and his stats were a little different. Any reason why?

    Different criteria. Mike compares this year to last year. I compare this year to the average of the past 3 years. There’s no sense in me repeating the same stats as Mike’s, so I like to give a different perspective. Mike’s stats show sales are up 15%, whereas mine show they’re only up 4.5%. One year can be an aberration, that’s why I like the 3-year average. -Bob

  2. Nice to see someone holding Garth Turner accountable for all his bad predictions. Good job, Bob. What I’m wondering, though, in your recent post about “Garth is the best,” what is he best at? Being obnoxious? I came across an interesting news article that brings to light some of his animosity towards Albertans. He has a long-standing dislike of the west, and Alberta in particular. Thank God he didn’t get elected along with the other liberals who chose “expedience” in order to garner votes. http://www.nationalpost.com/scripts/story.html?id=d5650500-a9c8-48cb-b044-873b0b40ccd4&k=39657. In the article, the author states “no Liberal, with the possible exception of Sen. Davey, has been as obnoxious about his distaste for Albertans and the West as Mr. Turner.”

    I posted this on the Greater Fool.ca but I expect Garth will censor it.

  3. First-time buyers are commonly referred to as the lifeblood of the real estate market. Purchases by FTB allow move-up buyers to upgrade, and so on up the chain. In September 2012, purchases by FTB were up 6% compared to the 3-year average. They were paying 2.3% more on average, and the homes they bought were 1.7% smaller.

  4. as long as there are more buyers, than sellers prices go up.. but at a certain point buyers start looking at the fundamentals, and decide they want out.

    with real estate, that process takes months. its not going to happen in a week its going to be months….

    nortel, bre-x, etc, there were buyers right at the very end paying higher prices until – well we know how that turned out.

    the rest of the country is starting to change momentum – calgary will also. i feel bad for people paying more than average for something smaller… the sellers are probably sleeping easy… i know i sure would be.

    Maybe the better question us – how much more debt can people take on?

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