Two weeks into September, and still no signs of a crack appearing in the Calgary housing market.
Posted in Calgary SFH, Market update
Only three days ago, we read in the Calgary Herald, Calgary housing prices and sales on the decline in September. This headline made front page news on the doomer blogs.
The bubble bloggers took this as a sign that Calgary was joining Toronto and Vancouver on the road to real estate Armageddon. What a difference 3 days can make. I can guarantee that you won’t be seeing any links posted to my headline on the fearmonger’s blogs. They’re not interested in enlightenment or accurate statistics. They prefer to reinforce their agenda with selective data which reinforces their group-think.
What should be of greatest concern is that the housing market in Calgary has a shortage of listings. Inventory is down 23% compared to last year. Can you imagine how much higher the sales increase would be if there was a better selection of homes for buyers?
Posted in Calgary Herald, Calgary SFH, Fearmongers, Market update
Sunshine, lollipops, and puppy dogs can also be added to the basket of good things which we have in Calgary. Unlike the craziness which has befallen the real estate market in Vancouver, we have stability in the world’s fifth most liveable city. If you believe the Toronto Board of Trade, Calgary is the best city on the planet. Let’s hope that Garth Turner’s recent visit here did not infect us with the Toronto disease of negativity and defeatism. It appears that no amount of loathing from the likes of jealous Ontarians will have any effect on our terrific city and its potential. Calgary remains an oasis of innovation and entrepreneurial spirit, with a balanced and healthy real estate market.
Just this morning I heard our dynamic and enlightened mayor, Naheed Nenshi, on the Eyeopener describing Calgary as the city of the future. I like our mayor, but I disagree. We are the city of the here and now, and the envy of the world. After seeing recent political developments, let’s get ready to welcome an influx of progressive, free-thinking people from Quebec to the city of opportunity.
RBC’s latest Housing Trends and Affordability Report said the local market has enjoyed the best of all worlds recently: stronger home resales and home building, moderately rising prices, and attractive and improving affordability. Calgary housing market among Canada’s most affordable
We’re not without some challenges, however, but our problems are small by comparison. Not enough inventory is the major concern. Students are having a hard time finding accommodation this semester. I guess it all depends which side of the fence you’re on. Landlords can pick and choose who they’ll rent to, and get a fair return on their investment. Tenants, on the other hand, will be paying more and will be getting screened more carefully.
Down to the nitty-gritty data, very little has changed since I last blogged two months ago. I fully expected we’d be seeing the usual autumn price drops by now, but the median price is still at spring-like levels. Inventory is still low, down 22% compared to last year. It’s difficult to have sales increases when there’s so little choice for buyers, but somehow, sales are still up over last year, and also up compared to the 3-year average.
First-time buyers
Two months ago, we were inundated with dire predictions of a market collapse when the end of 30-year amortizations was introduced. I expected first-time buyers would be hit hardest by the new rules, but the impact has been minimal. The table below is typical of the homes which first-time buyers will purchase, and is identical to last year, except for a slightly higher price:
| Date | # Sales | Price per sq ft |
| 2012 | 188 | $250 |
| 2011 | 188 | $239 |
| Criteria: 2-storey homes in the suburbs under 1700 sq ft for the 30-day period Aug 8 – Sep 6, 2012 | ||
The biggest obstacle for first-timers is the lack of inventory. It’s hard to buy a house when there’s nothing to choose from. For the market to remain viable, we need buyers at the entry level so that move-up buyers can sell. This lack of listings really shows up in the “under $500,000” price range, where there is only a 66-day supply of homes for sale.
What happens when there’s a lack of inventory?
When there’s a lack of inventory, an attractive and accurately-priced home will sell quickly. The above house was listed in the morning and had a conditional sale by sundown.
I hope you’ve enjoyed the great weather this summer. Between real estate transactions, I finally climbed Canada’s highest maintained hiking trail which is right on our back door in beautiful Kananaskis Country. Centennial Ridge – Mt Allan hike.
Check back often, as I’ll be updating the blog regularly, at least until ski season starts.
Posted in Calgary SFH, First-time buyers, Market update, Mortgages, Renting
Canada Day in Canmore, Alberta
The housing market in Calgary continues to defy gravity(and all the predictions that were calling for a crash). The biggest issue we had this spring was a shortage of attractive listings. I predicted back in the winter that we’d eventually see higher prices if the lack of inventory persisted, and that’s exactly what happened. The median price is up 9.2% compared to December.
With so little for buyers to choose from, it’s surprising to see that year-to-date sales are up 19% compared to 2011, and up 12% compared to the past three years. More complete statistics can be seen here Monthly stats update
Bidding wars update
Over the past three days, 12% of homes went for list price or higher. A home in North Glenmore which was listed for $489,500 was sold for $492,500, with an accepted offer coming after 2 days on the market. The home was purchased in 2007 for $450,000.
Posted in Bidding wars, Calgary SFH, Month-end, Predictions
Over the past four days, 13% of the single family homes went for list price or higher. A few examples…
A home in Garrison Woods sold for $606,000 which was $6,100 over list price. It had an accepted offer in four days. It was purchased in 2004 for $308,000.
A home in Glamorgan sold for $482,000 which was $7,000 over list price. It had an accepted offer on its first day on the market. It was purchased in 2006 for $395,000.
A reno project in Oakridge Estates sold for $765,000 which was $$2,500 over list price. It was purchased last year for $517,500.
Posted in Bidding wars, Calgary SFH
This being the last update before the new mortgage rules were announced, it will be interesting to see how it changes over the coming weeks. Will there be a huge increase in inventory with sellers desperate to make a sale before the new rules come into effect on July 9?
Posted in Calgary SFH, Market update
Over the past two days, only 10% of the SFH sales were for list price or higher. Homes in the following communities sold over list price:
Glamorgan $10,100
North Haven $100
Tuxedo $14,600
Bankview $7,600
Winston Heights $5,700
Inglewood $5,100
Shaganappi $2,700
North Glenmore $15,100
Tuscany $100
Glenbrook $578
Canyon Meadows Estates $100
Homes in these communities sold for list price:
Brentwood
Valley Ridge
Montgomery
South Calgary
The home in North Haven was purchased in 1998 for $149,000 and sold for $360,000. It had an accepted offer on its first day on the market.
During the first 8 days of June, 13% of homes sold for list price or higher.
Posted in Bidding wars, Calgary SFH
The Plunge-O-meter guy comes up with some totally bizarre predictions. He won’t be around to be accountable, but he predicts in the year 2294(yes, that’s 282 years from now), the average price in Calgary will be $276,776. It will drop an average of $66/mo for 3383 months. http://www.chpc.biz/plunge-o-meter.html
By comparison, he predicts the demise in Edmonton will be quick. In a short 23 years, Edmonton’s average price will be $216,187.
Posted in Calgary SFH, Fearmongers, Predictions
Some first-hand evidence of the hot Calgary market. My clients purchased a home on the weekend after looking at six inner-city properties. There were three other new listings on the agenda which we wanted to view, but the homes were sold before we had an opportunity to see them.
Over the weekend, 19% of the sales were for list price or higher.
Posted in Calgary SFH, Market update
June hasn’t shown any changes in the bidding wars happening in Calgary’s real estate market. So far this month, 13% of all single family homes have sold for list price or higher.
How much did someone pay for 6400 sq ft of dirt? A tear-down in St Andrew’s Heights recently sold for $651,000 after being listed for $645,000. It had an accepted offer after one day on the market.
A brand new 3713 sq ft home in St Andrew’s Heights recently sold for list price at $2.3 million.
Posted in Calgary SFH, Over list price
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