Sellers have the upper hand in Calgary

Posted on July 19, 2013 | 2 comments

Over the past four days, 14% of sales have been for list price or higher. For a healthy market, that’s still higher than I’d like to see it.

A 1990 sq ft 2-storey home in Citadel which was listed for $434,900 was sold for $445,000. It was only on the market for two days.

More indicative of the market is the sales-to-new-listings(SNL) ratio at 80%. The average SNL in July since 2006 has been 59%.

The absorption rate of 2.0 is also in seller’s market territory. This means we have a 60-days supply of listings. We normally have a 102-day supply in July.

I don’t normally pay much attention on this blog to the condo market, but the SNL ratio for condos in July is a phenomenal 95%. It’s usually at 59% in July.

2 Comments

Posted in Bidding wars, Calgary SFH, Over list price

Garth Turner – milking the gullible

Posted on July 17, 2013 | 10 comments

Do not readI was alerted by Jeff to a number of recent comments on Garth Turner’s blog  trashing me.  Gratuitous untruths from anonymous cretins, as usual. As I’ve said before to Garth, “if he quits telling lies about me, I’ll quit telling the truth about him.” Garth gets upset when anyone holds him accountable for his misleading statements, and his way of fighting back is with more misleading statements. He likes to dish it out, but he can’t take it. Did you know that he once threatened to sue me? For someone who regularly insults and demeans people, he’s got a pretty thin skin.

Garth TurnerJimmy posted this comment a while back about Garth Turner and his blog. It will serve adequately as my rejoinder: “This pathetic blog truly is pathetic. I’m no realtor, and in fact I myself am hoping that real estate moderates. However, your repeated reminders of how you told us this or that would happen indicate a level of narcissism. The fact is, the housing decline you’ve been leading your impoverished followers to believe would happen for years has not materialized.

Garth gets his day off to a good start by reading my blog

Garth gets his day off to a good start by reading my blog

The mortgage rules changes will not induce correction — only a rise in rates will do that, and there’s not indication its going to happen any time soon. Face it — you have a legion of bitter, low-income wannabe home owners who would delight in the economy being trashed if it would mean that they could obtain a mansion in Bridal Path for $100,000. I don’t know who’s worse: the realtors or the bitter wannabes. Or maybe you are the biggest villain here for milking the gullible masses to suit your own ends, and for letting your ego and your need to be right get in the way of your message.

It was three months ago when Gartho predicted “…the beginning of the end in Cowtown.”  Since then we’ve had stable prices and increased sales.

10 Comments

Posted in Greater Fool

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Market update Jul 1 – 15, 2013

Inventory vs sales and price2

Bloodbath postponed for five years

“House-aggeddon” was supposed to have happened every year between 2008 – 2011.  No luck.

After the mortgage rule changes, a devastating crash was predicted for 2012. No luck.

A crash of biblical proportions was forecast for 2013. That one’s gone by the wayside.

Now its been delayed for another five years according to this gem from GreaterFool.ca: . “If so many people are rushing to lock-in pre-approved mortgage rates while home prices are still high, how bad is it going to be in 2018 when the rates are closer to 10%??? Its going to be a bloodbath!”

4 Comments

Posted on July 16, 2013 in Calgary SFH, Market update, Predictions

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Market update July 1 -7, 2013

Inventory vs sales and price2

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Posted on July 8, 2013 in Calgary SFH, Market update

The flood: for the record

Posted on July 7, 2013 | 3 comments

Garth Turner has been notoriously wrong with his predictions about Calgary real estate. You’d think he’d know better…

CREB says…“While it might stave off a bit of activity on the sales from what we originally were thinking we were going to have for the rest of the year, I don’t think it’s going to be significant,” says real estate board economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “If there are less listings on the market because some of these properties are coming off, it actually could improve pricing activity in some of the other areas. You could actually see prices really continue to grow at the rates we’ve seen. So I wouldn’t expect much change there.”

Garth Turner(GreaterFool.ca) says…Then Calgary would be unique. Flood experience in other urban centres (like Brisbane in 2011) shows house values dropped by about 20% in affected areas, and as much as 60% for periods ranging between months and years. In fact in Brisbane (twice the population of Calgary) the average house price for the entire city – flooded or not – dipped between 10% and 30% for months after.

Other studies show that over a long period of time, there’s a flood discount, with properties that were underwater appreciating at a slower rate than those which stayed dry. http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/06/24/the-deluge/

After his epic failings in the past, Garth has become quite reluctant to come out and make a definite prediction for Calgary, but it would seem in his contorted way that he’s predicting Calgary will follow in Brisbane’s footsteps with a 60% drop. No, a 20% drop. Sorry, I meant a 10% – 30% drop.

Update Aug 31, 2013: Stay renting. This is not the time to buy in Cowtown. -Garth Turner http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/08/30/divine-guidance/

3 Comments

Posted in Flood of 2013, Greater Fool, Predictions

Garth “FrankenTurner”

Posted on July 3, 2013 | 1 comment

When the data doesn’t agree with your agenda, there must be something inherently wrong with it. When the data agrees with your agenda, it’s infallible. A wonderful and poignant comment was posted on the GreaterFool.ca blog by my favourite character over there, Smoking Man:

#40Smoking Man on 07.03.13 at 10:21 pm

Gee Wizz garth, Franken numbers ha.

They weren’t Franken numbers last fall when we were in seasonal decline..

Definition of Franken number = when stats go against someone’s wishful bias.

1 Comment

Posted in Greater Fool

Highest ever June average price

Posted on July 2, 2013 | 1 comment

A record high price was set in June for single-family homes. The average single-family home price hit $527,162, up 7.7 per cent from last year, and eclipsing May’s record of $521,887.

Inventory was low before the flood. It is now seriously low.

Inventory vs sales and price Jun

First time buyers were up 37% compared to the 3-year average, and up 8% compared to last year.

The Calgary Herald has reports of homes selling sight-unseen. “We have seen in the past week properties sell, sight unseen, for families that have lost their homes in the flooding…. It is shifting into a sellers’ market where buyers must buy immediately when a property enters the market or risk losing it to competing offers if they wait. The rental market is becoming non-existent so the families must purchase an alternative.”

Read more: Record month in Calgary real estate

1 Comment

Posted in Market update, Month-end

Market update Jun 1 – 18, 2013

Posted on June 19, 2013 | 1 comment

To quote Ben Rabidoux, “Hard to see how Alberta’s housing market will slow meaningfully given population growth + low units under constrctn.”

Inventory vs sales and price2Rabidoux: “Alberta nominal y/y population growth in Q2 2013 was HIGHER than Ontario for the first time….ever.”

 Here’s a chart from Rabidoux showing population growth:

Population change

1 Comment

Posted in Calgary SFH, Market update, Population, Predictions

Calgary house price growth best in Canada

Posted on June 17, 2013 | 1 comment

Last month I made a special note of the fact that first-time buyers were busy in May, with a 30% increase in first-timers over last year. This story in the Herald reinforces it:

The real estate market in Calgary is supported by three important factors,  any of which would support a robust market independently and yet we enjoy all  three,” said Cody Battershill, a realtor with RE/MAX House of Real Estate in  Calgary. “The underlying variable that ties all three together is the  desirability and quality of living we enjoy in Calgary.”

The first factor is strong migration to Calgary and Alberta.

“The second is Calgary’s demographics. We are Canada’s youngest major city  with the average Calgarian being in their mid to late 30’s. This is important as  first-time buyers kick start the property ladder and enable existing homeowners  to sell and move up,” he said.

“The third factor is that Calgary is a head office leader and business hub  that is recognized internationally for our experience, technical prowess and  leadership. Calgary has more head offices per capita than anywhere else in  Canada and is the world’s 17th most competitive financial centre.”

Read more:  House price growth best in Canada

also, from BMO: Prices remain stable, perhaps maddeningly so for the legions of bubble mongers. The ceiling can’t hold us

1 Comment

Posted in Calgary Herald, Calgary SFH, First-time buyers, Population

Yesterday’s re-lists

Posted on June 14, 2013 | 1 comment

If you’re not familiar with the term, re-listing refers to the practice of terminating a listing and re-listing it soon after in order to have the days-on-market reset to zero, and perhaps give the impression that it’s a fresh, new listing.

There were 96 new listings yesterday, of which 11 were re-lists. The criteria I’m using covers anything that terminated or expired since March 14.

What’s interesting is that most of them, 9 of the 11, were in the upper price ranges(an original list price above $700,000). Also, 2 of the 11 were re-listed at the same price. Sometimes a listing expires at the end of 60 or 90 days and the sellers simply re-list in order to keep their property on the market, frequently at the same price.

Why is this important information? If you’re looking at buying, it’s vital to know the history of the listing as it will give you some insight that can be used when considering your offer.

I can’t stress enough the importance of sellers pricing their property correctly. If your house sits on the market for longer than average, it becomes stale and you’ll usually end up selling for less than if you had priced it correctly for a quick sale in the first place.

1 Comment

Posted in Buyers, Calgary SFH, Re-lists