Alberta is least overvalued

Posted on March 4, 2013 | 3 comments

Fitch Ratings Agency, in a report prepared to determine potential losses on pools of residential mortgages, says Alberta is sitting pretty compared to most other provinces.

“Actual nominal [price] declines could range from the low single digits for Alberta, up to more than 15 per cent for B.C. and Quebec over the next several years assuming values start falling immediately and taking into account inflation and other market dynamics…

Among the four largest provinces, Alberta is the least overvalued because it already went through a house price correction when crude oil prices fell in 2008, and prices have not returned to their 2007 peak.”

Read more Canadian home prices overinflated by 20%: Fitch

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Posted in Predictions

What happened in February?

Posted on March 1, 2013 | 2 comments

Even with inventory down by 25%,  sales were still up by 3.8% in Feb compared to the average of the past 3 years. 

Inventory vs sales and price

  • The average price hit an all-time high for Calgary at $518,452 but it’s well-known that I put more credence in the median price, which hit an all-time high for Feb at $437,500. It’s still $1500 less than the record high of $439,000 in Jun 2007.
  • First-time buyers were up 6.8% compared to last year.

A seller’s market

  • There’s a huge demand for homes priced under $500,000 with an absorption rate of 1.3 which means there’s a 39-day supply of homes on the market. Last year in this price range, there was a 60-day supply.
  • For homes priced above 500,000, there’s a 111-day supply.
  • Bidding wars are going strong, with 17% of homes selling for list price or higher in the last four days of the month.

Read more here Monthly stats update
From the Calgary Herald: Calgary housing market sets all-time record

2 Comments

Posted in Bidding wars, Market update, Month-end

Market update Feb 1 – 15, 2013

Posted on February 16, 2013 | 4 comments

Over the past two days, 20% of the sales have been for list price or higher. 31% of the homes listed in the past 30 days already are sold or conditionally sold. Concern: First-time buyers are down 8% compared to last year. Are they being priced out?

Inventory vs sales and priceA tear-down bungalow in Capitol Hill was listed two days ago for $524,900. It sold in one day for $540,000. Builders seem to have confidence in this market.

Also two days ago, a home in Elbow Park sold for list price, $1.6 million, after two days on the market.

4 Comments

Posted in First-time buyers, Market update, Over list price

See you in the spring

Posted on October 22, 2012 | 5 comments

As I’ve been doing for the past many years, it’s time to head for the mountains for the winter.  We’ve been skiing for 10 days already and there’s lots of snow on the way. We’re lucky to have such wonderful winters in Alberta.

It’s been a surprising year in the Calgary real estate market. Expectations early this year were for a downturn. We had a shortage of inventory, but I expected the usual influx of listings in the spring would alleviate that problem. It didn’t occur, and provided inventory remains low, I don’t expect anything dramatic to happen. Every major market is experiencing drops in year-over-year sales except Calgary.

I appreciate all the feedback and comments which you’ve provided over the past nine months. In the mean time you can find me at SkierBob.ca. 

5 Comments

Posted in Blog is on holidays

Market update Oct 1 – 21

Posted on October 22, 2012 | Leave a comment

Usually by this time of year, the median price drops. It’s the old spring up, fall down scenario. Not this year. The median price is higher now than it was in July.

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Posted in Calgary SFH, Market update

God’s Country

Posted on October 21, 2012 | 2 comments

The following chart comes from Scotiabank. Read more Scotiabank Globalviews

Calgary and Edmonton were the only two cities to show an increase in sales in Sep 2012

2 Comments

Posted in Month-end, Statistics

Mid-Oct market update

Posted on October 16, 2012 | 1 comment

A shortage of inventory and a 9% price increase wouldn’t be considered all that  dramatic, except everywhere else sales and prices are dropping. I was mocked way back in the spring when I said that our low inventory would result in price increases. Things have transpired exactly as I predicted.

1 Comment

Posted in Market update

Market update Oct 1 – 7

Posted on October 8, 2012 | 2 comments

It’s only a short reporting period, but prices and sales have made a considerable uptick for the first week of October. Will Calgary’s housing market eventually succumb to the downturns which are now occurring in Toronto and Vancouver? The cliff appears to be a lot further down the road. 

“It may be human nature to gripe, but every now and then we need to open our eyes, take a look around and give thanks for our good fortune in being able to call Alberta home”  Read more Giving thanks for Alberta

2 Comments

Posted in Calgary SFH, Market update

What happened in September?

Posted on September 30, 2012 | 4 comments

Looking at the September statistics in isolation will not tell you the complete story. It still looks like we’ve got increasing sales along with an inventory shortage, while the median price is up:

The trend is your friend

More importantly, it appears from the table below that we will see decreased sales in October if the trend continues. We’ve had eight consecutive months of sales increases, but I predict that will come to an end next month. What’s the reason for the imminent sales drop? We’ve had sales increases despite extremely low inventory. Is the long-awaited correction finally going to hit Calgary, or is it that buyers have finally run out of homes to purchase?

4 Comments

Posted in Market update, Month-end

Calgary has the best real estate statistics in Canada

Posted on September 29, 2012 | Leave a comment

There’s nothing more frustrating than trying to find good real estate data when you’re buying or selling, if it doesn’t exist. I received this email from a reader who realizes the value of relevant and timely information. If anyone reading can help this Ottawa resident, please leave a comment. It sounds like a great opportunity for Ottawa realtors to help inform their community:

“After moving to Ottawa I have spent significant amount of time and effort trying to find information on Ottawa RE stats. Other then very short and dry monthly bulletins on the OREB website and highly irregular and non-descriptive posts on the websites of the local Real Estate agents I couldn’t find anything even remotely similar to information provided on your website. I even emailed OREB asking them where I can find historical RE data, but it seems like they simply ignoring my requests so far. Is there a way for non-realtor to obtain current and historic stats from the local Real Estate Board? I realize that Ottawa Real Estate Board is out of your jurisdiction, but may be you can give an idea how I can get my hands on such information? Thank you for providing Calgarians with valuable RE information.”

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Posted in Statistics